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宏观与周期

Inflation

/ɪnˈfleɪʃn/
macro 4 篇文章 更新于 2026-11-12 15:24 CEFR B2

01定义Definition

Official definition · 官方定义

“Inflation is an economic concept that refers to an increase in the price level of goods over a specified period.”[1]

— Corporate Finance Institute, CFI Resource Library · corporatefinanceinstitute.com ↗ · accessed 2026-10-25

Inflation is a sustained rise in the general price level. It is measured by tracking a basket of goods and services over time. A little is normal; the problem is when it runs faster than wages or becomes unpredictable.

通胀是整体物价水平的持续上涨,用一篮子商品和服务的价格变动来度量。温和通胀是常态;真正的问题是它跑得比工资快,或者变得无法预测。

02它怎么运作How it works

STEP 01
Demand outruns supply
需求超过供给,价格开始抬升。
STEP 02
Firms pass on costs
企业把成本转嫁到售价。
STEP 03
Workers ask for more pay
工人要求涨薪,保住购买力。
STEP 04
Expectations settle in
预期固化:大家提前涨价,通胀自我实现。

03为什么重要Why it matters

Inflation decides the real value of every fixed payment: wages, pensions, coupons, rent. It also drives the single most important price in finance, the policy rate — central banks raise rates to cool it and cut when it undershoots. A 3% headline with 6% core is a different story from 3% and 3%, because core strips out food and energy and says more about where prices are heading.

通胀决定每一笔固定金额的真实价值:工资、养老金、票息、房租。它同时驱动金融里最重要的价格——政策利率:央行为压通胀而加息,为托通胀而降息。

标题 3%、核心 6%,和两者都是 3%,是完全不同的故事。核心剔除了食品和能源,更能说明价格接下来往哪走。

04数字怎么看The numbers

Move变动Where it appeared出现位置What it means这句话在说什么
3.7%Why strong hiring still feels weak
通胀 · 第 6 张术语卡
Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, faster than pay at 3.1%.
常用 CPI(消费者物价指数)衡量,它是一个固定篮子的价格变化:住房约占三分之一,交通约 17%,食品约 13%。篮子权重每年调整,但不会因为某样东西涨价就立刻换成便宜的替代品,所以 CPI 与个人的真实感受会略有出入。
2%US consumer sentiment sinks to its second-lowest level on record
通胀 · 第 5 张术语卡
The Fed wants 2% inflation, a target it has missed for more than five years.
通胀是加权平均,不是「所有东西一起涨」。食品和油价最容易被感知,所以调查里的「通胀痛感」常常高于官方数字——这也是政策沟通最难的地方。
3.7%Wall Street slumps as hot inflation revives the Fed’s rate-hike fears
通胀 · 第 1 张术语卡
The September reading of 3.7% was the spark: it told markets the Fed may keep squeezing, not easing.
常用指标有 CPI(消费者价格)与 PPI(生产者价格)。央行通常以『把年通胀压到约 2%』为目标;高于目标往往引发加息。
—PepsiCo to raise some prices after cuts failed to grow sales
通胀 · 第 2 张术语卡
PepsiCo uses inflation as the yardstick for its increase: a low-to-mid single digit percentage, “aligned with inflation”.
「与通胀水平相当」是消费品公司最常用的一句挡箭牌——它想表达的是:我没有趁机多赚,只是把成本转出去。判断真假要看两点:一是这次涨的是不是只覆盖成本(看毛利率有没有扩张),二是提价之后销量掉不掉(看销量弹性)。美国 8 月 CPI 环比 +0.4%,年化约 5%,所以「低至中个位数」的涨幅确实只能算跟得上物价。

05常见误读Common misreadings

Looks like看着像

Prices are rising

Actually其实是

Inflation is the rate of change. Prices can be high and inflation low.

「物价在涨」——通胀是涨价的速率;物价可以很高,而通胀很低。
Looks like看着像

CPI is inflation

Actually其实是

CPI is one measure of it. The Fed targets PCE, which weights differently.

「CPI 就是通胀」——CPI 只是其中一种度量;美联储盯的是权重不同的 PCE。
Looks like看着像

Inflation hurts everyone

Actually其实是

Debtors gain and creditors lose when inflation is unexpected.

「通胀伤所有人」——未预期到的通胀里,债务人受益、债权人受损。

06语言笔记Language notes

Collocations固定搭配

· inflation eased to 3.2%
· core inflation
· inflation expectations
· run above target
· disinflation

inflation eased to 3.2% 通胀放缓至 3.2%;core inflation 核心通胀(剔除食品能源);inflation expectations 通胀预期;run above target 高于目标;disinflation 指反通胀,即涨幅收窄。

Don't confuse易混

· disinflation (slower rise) vs deflation (falling prices)
· headline vs core (with or without food and energy)

disinflation 是涨得慢了,deflation 是价格真的在跌;headline 含食品能源,core 不含,两者背离时先看能源。

Sentence pattern句型

Consumer prices rose X% from a year earlier, down from Y% in the prior month.

数据句:CPI 同比上涨 X%,低于上月的 Y%——同比、环比、预期三条线要分开读。

07一张图看懂One picture

Headline and core rarely move together22.833.674.5HeadlineCoreM1M3M5M7M9M11Illustrative path. Core excludes food and energy.
Energy can drag the headline down while core keeps drifting — the gap is why central banks watch both.
能源可以把整体通胀拖下去,核心却还在往上漂;两条线分开看,才看得出央行真正担心的是哪一段。

08延伸阅读Further reading

09出现在这些文章里Appears in

10相关概念Related

11引用与出处References

  1. [1]Corporate Finance Institute. CFI Resource Library. corporatefinanceinstitute.com ↗accessed 2026-10-25 · 引用于「官方定义」第 1 句