The extra yield investors demand for holding a long bond instead of rolling short ones.
期限溢价 —— 投资者因为借出长期资金、而不
| Move变动 | Where it appeared出现位置 | What it means这句话在说什么 |
|---|---|---|
| — | America's borrowing limit is about to become its loudest bargaining chip 期限溢价 —— 投资者因为借出长期资金、而不 · 第 9 张术语卡 | Uncertainty around the X-date can lift it long before anything is missed. 它无法直接观测，只能用模型估算。期限溢价上升，意味着房贷、企业债、地方债的定价基准一起上移——这是最容易被忽视、影响却最普遍的一种成本。 |
| — | IMF warns that the AI boom's debt could turn a correction into a crisis 期限溢价 —— 投资者因为借出长期资金、而不 · 第 5 张术语卡 | The IMF singles out term premiums at the top of historical ranges, together with high debt and large refinancing needs, as the reason governments are exposed to a further rise in borrowing costs. 为什么要单独看期限溢价？因为它把「预期」和「风险补偿」分开了。收益率里包含市场对未来的预期利率，这部分是「基本面」；剩下的就是期限溢价，是市场为不确定性收的钱。期限溢价上升，说明投资者即使预期利率会降，也要求更多补偿才肯买长债 —— 这通常出现在投资者担心发债太多、财政不可持续的时候。2026 年的组合正是如此：央行缩表、主权与私人部门同时大量发债，买家从「价格不敏感」的央行转向「价格敏感」的基金，所以期限溢价被推到了历史区间上端。 |
“Uncertainty around the X-date can lift it long before anything is missed.”
“The IMF singles out term premiums at the top of historical ranges, together with high debt and large refinanc…”