When a central bank tells markets what it expects to do next, so that policy works before the decision is even made.
前瞻指引
| Move变动 | Where it appeared出现位置 | What it means这句话在说什么 |
|---|---|---|
| — | The tenth of a point that moved the whole curve 前瞻指引 · 第 6 张术语卡 | Warsh has dropped the practice, which is why one monthly decimal now moves prices so far. 前瞻指引的作用是「用嘴加息」：只要市场相信央行会收紧，长期利率与汇率先动，金融条件提前收紧，央行就不必真加那么多。代价是央行被自己的话绑住，遇到意外时不好转向。沃什取消指引，等于把这层缓冲拿掉——数据好一天，市场就重定价一次，波动因此变大。 |
| — | The bond market raised rates for the Fed 前瞻指引 · 第 5 张术语卡 | Without guidance, the statement's wording has to carry the whole message. 前瞻指引在 2008 年后成为主流工具：利率已经降到零，只能靠「承诺长期不加息」来压低长端利率。它的代价是绑住自己的手——市场会按承诺定价，央行一旦偏离就要付出信任成本。沃什的做法是把成本转回给市场：不再承诺，让每一次数据发布自己去定价。 |
“Warsh has dropped the practice, which is why one monthly decimal now moves prices so far.”
“Without guidance, the statement's wording has to carry the whole message.”