The interest rate a central bank sets as its main tool. In America it is a target range for overnight lending between banks, now 3.75% to 4.00%.
政策利率
| Move变动 | Where it appeared出现位置 | What it means这句话在说什么 |
|---|---|---|
| — | The tenth of a point that moved the whole curve 政策利率 · 第 4 张术语卡 | The Fed has raised it once since Kevin Warsh took over, and officials argue the current range is still too low. 政策利率是「批发价」，房贷、车贷、企业债是「零售价」。传导有摩擦也有时滞：政策利率动一次，最优惠贷款利率通常立刻跟，房贷跟得慢一些，企业债要看信用利差同不同步。所以「央行加了息」不等于「融资立刻变贵」，市场先动的是 2 年期国债——它交易的是未来两年的政策路径。 |
| — | The bond market raised rates for the Fed 政策利率 · 第 1 张术语卡 | The whole article hangs on one number that is not going to change on Wednesday. 美联储真正的操作指标是「联邦基金有效利率」（EFFR），它必须落在目标区间内。区间由 FOMC 投票决定，实际成交价由银行间的资金供求决定——所以偶尔会出现「技术性偏离」，但那不是政策变了。判断一次会议是鹰是鸽，先看区间动没动，再看声明怎么描述下一步。 |
| 1.25% | Japan's 20-year bond sale sees strongest demand on record 政策利率 · 第 8 张术语卡 | The BOJ raised its key rate to 1.25% last month, a 31-year high. Markets price only a 6.2% chance of another hike next week. 政策利率只管「隔夜」，长端收益率却由预期决定。所以央行即使这次不动，只要会后记者会的语气变了，30 年期收益率也会立刻反应——文章里说「对长债而言，政策的终点比下一次会议更重要」，就是这个道理。读央行新闻时，别只看加不加息，要看它怎么描述「还要加多少」。 |
“The Fed has raised it once since Kevin Warsh took over, and officials argue the current range is still too lo…”
“The whole article hangs on one number that is not going to change on Wednesday.”
“The BOJ raised its key rate to 1.25% last month, a 31-year high. Markets price only a 6.2% chance of another…”