Contracts that pay out according to where the policy rate will be. Their prices are read as the market's probability forecast.
利率期货
| Move变动 | Where it appeared出现位置 | What it means这句话在说什么 |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | The bond market raised rates for the Fed 利率期货 · 第 8 张术语卡 | A 10% chance this week and more than 80% for December — those numbers are futures talking. 最常见的品种是 30 天联邦基金期货。把某一会议的隐含利率与「加息后」的利率比较，就能反推出概率：如果隐含利率是 3.90%，而当前区间中值是 3.875%、加息后是 4.125%，那么加息概率约为 (3.90−3.875)/(4.125−3.875) ≈ 10%。所以新闻里的「市场认为 80% 加息」不是民意调查，是从价格里解出来的。 |