Leaning towards higher rates and tighter money. The opposite is dovish, leaning towards lower rates.
鹰派
| Move变动 | Where it appeared出现位置 | What it means这句话在说什么 |
|---|---|---|
| — | The bond market raised rates for the Fed 鹰派 · 第 6 张术语卡 | El-Erian expects a hawkish packaging around a decision that looks dovish. 两个词来自鸟：鹰抓猎物，鸽象征和平。判断鹰鸽不看他说了什么形容词，看三件事——对通胀的描述（elevated 还是 moderating）、对下一步的措辞（likely appropriate 还是 carefully assess）、以及是否提到缩表。同样是按兵不动，「鹰派暂停」和「鸽派暂停」对两年期收益率的影响可以差 10 个基点以上。 |
| — | U.S. bond-market slide deepens, pushing yields to two-decade highs 鹰派 · 第 7 张术语卡 | “Wednesday's economic data will allow the Fed to 'double down' on its hawkish stance.” In plain terms: strong data gives the Fed a licence to keep raising rates. 美国本轮是加息周期（去年到现在首次加息到 3.75%–4%），所以官员说话偏鹰。判断鹰鸽不要看形容词，看市场的隐含概率：这次「10 月再加 25 个基点」的概率一天之内从 55% 跳到近 70%。美联储 11 位官员的利率预期点阵图（dot plot）和主席记者会措辞同样重要。 |
“El-Erian expects a hawkish packaging around a decision that looks dovish.”
““Wednesday's economic data will allow the Fed to 'double down' on its hawkish stance.” In plain terms: strong…”