Official definition · 官方定义
“An earnings guidance is the information provided by the management of a publicly traded company regarding its expected future results, including estimates of revenues, expenses, margins, and earnings.”[1]
— Corporate Finance Institute, CFI Resource Library · corporatefinanceinstitute.com ↗ · accessed 2026-10-25
Guidance is a company's own forecast of future results, usually revenue and earnings for the next quarter or year. It is not audited and can be withdrawn, but markets trade on it more than on the past.
业绩指引是公司自己对未来业绩的预测，通常是下一季度或全年的营收与利润。它不经审计、随时可以撤回，但市场交易它胜过交易过去。
A company can beat last quarter and still fall 10% if guidance disappoints. That is because equity prices are claims on future cash flow, and guidance is the only forward number management puts its name to. Withdrawn guidance is itself information: it usually means visibility has collapsed, which is why the announcement often moves the stock more than the miss that caused it.
一家公司可以上季度超预期，却因为指引不及预期而跌 10%。因为股价是对未来现金流的索取权，而指引是管理层唯一署名背书的未来数字。
撤回指引本身就是信息：通常意味着能见度崩了。所以「撤回」这个动作，往往比导致它发生的那次不及预期更能砸股价。
| Move变动 | Where it appeared出现位置 | What it means这句话在说什么 |
|---|---|---|
| — | Apple's best year ever comes with a memory bill that will not stop growing 业绩指引 · 第 2 张术语卡 | Apple beat on the quarter and was sold on the guide. The market trades the forecast, not the past. 指引比当期数字更能推动股价，因为股价反映的是未来现金流。读指引要看三件事：区间中点、与市场一致预期的差、以及公司自己给的理由。这次苹果营收指引 7%–10% 高于预期，毛利率指引 45%–46% 低于预期的 47%，股价跟着后者走——说明市场把利润率看得比增速更重。 |
| — | American Airlines had record sales and still lost money 业绩指引 · 第 7 张术语卡 | American cut its guidance to a full-year loss of $1.00 to $1.60 per share. 指引比单季数字更重要，因为它代表管理层对未来的判断。下调指引通常比一个季度亏钱更伤股价——它说明问题还没结束。 |
| — | Nestlé sells more coffee and chocolate as price rises slow 业绩指引 · 第 5 张术语卡 | Nestlé kept its guidance of 3 to 4 per cent organic growth for 2026. 指引比单季数字更重要。公司可以靠一次性因素做漂亮一个季度，但指引代表管理层对未来一年的判断。 |
| $61.5bn | Micron's record quarter shows how AI is squeezing the world's memory supply 业绩指引 · 第 7 张术语卡 | Micron guided to $61.5 billion of revenue in the current quarter, above the $57 billion analysts had pencilled in. 美光给出 2027 财年第一财季营收 615 亿美元、调整后每股收益 38.15 美元，均高于华尔街预期。但同时提示毛利率会从 87% 回落到 86.3%——这就是为什么「业绩超预期」当天股价反而收平。 |
Guidance is a promise
It is a forecast, frequently missed and sometimes withdrawn.
Beating guidance is enough
What matters is the new guidance versus the old expectation.
No guidance means no information
It usually signals low visibility, which is information.
· raised its guidance
· guidance range
· below consensus
· withdrew guidance
· guided to
raised its guidance 上调指引；guidance range 指引区间；below consensus 低于预期；withdrew guidance 撤回指引；guided to 指引为。
· guidance vs consensus (company vs analysts)
· guidance vs target
guidance 是公司给的，consensus 是分析师的一致预期；guidance 是短期预测，target 多是长期目标。
The company guided to revenue of $X–Ybn, below the $Zbn consensus.
指引句：公司指引营收 X 至 Y 亿美元，低于 Z 亿美元的一致预期——guided to 后面跟区间。
“Apple beat on the quarter and was sold on the guide. The market trades the forecast, not the past.”
“American cut its guidance to a full-year loss of $1.00 to $1.60 per share.”
“Nestlé kept its guidance of 3 to 4 per cent organic growth for 2026.”
“Micron guided to $61.5 billion of revenue in the current quarter, above the $57 billion analysts had pencille…”