A record year, and a warning about the year after: the product that carries half of Apple's revenue now carries a memory bill as well.
Photo: Pexels (royalty-free library image; not the original article's photography)
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Apple closed its fiscal year with $478.8 billion of revenue and a 47.9% gross margin, then guided holiday-quarter margin down to 45–46% as memory prices surged. The shares fell about 4%.
Apple's best year evercomes witha memory billthat will not stop growing
苹果史上最好的一年附带着一张存储账单而且它还在变长
PARA 01
Appleclosed its fiscal yearwith record revenue, record iPhone sales and a 47.9% gross margin1— and then told investorsthat the holiday quarter would be less profitable than any in recent memory.
The sharesdid not celebrate:Applefell about 4% in after-hours tradingas executives walked analysts through the outlook,and was down more than 3% before the next session opened.
The reasonsits in one line of the guidance.2Applesaidgross margin for the December quarter would be 45% to 46%,against 47.9% in the quarter just reported and 50.1% in the June quarter.
Strip out the one-off,3and the picture darkens.The September figureincludedabout a percentage point of tariff refunds;without that, the fall from June was steeper than the reported 2.2 points.
Chart 1 | The margin path. The September quarter included about a point of tariff refunds; remove it and the base for the December guide is nearer 46.9%, which is why an analyst put the implied fall at about 140 basis points.Sources: Apple's fiscal Q4 2026 results and December-quarter guidance. The ex-refund figure is derived by subtracting the disclosed one-point benefit; the December bar is the midpoint of the guided range.
PARA 07
"What we are seeing on memory pricing right now is unprecedented,"John Ternus,who took over as chief executive on 1 September,told analystson his first earnings call.
Memoryis the commodity inside every phone,and it has been repriced by the same data-centre boom that made the chipmakers rich.Contract prices for DRAMroughly tripled from their 2025 low,according to TrendForce.
A processor socket and fine traces on a motherboard. Memory is a standardised part that every phone must buy, which is why a price rise in it cannot be designed away.主板上的处理器插槽与走线。存储芯片和处理器一样，是每部手机都必须买的标准化零件——也正因如此，它的涨价无处可躲。Photo: Pexels (royalty-free library image; not the original article's photography)
PARA 09
Gross marginis the seam where that shows up.It is what remains of revenue after cost of sales — the components, the assembly, the freight — divided by revenue,4and for a hardware company it moves with two things:what parts cost, and what the customer will pay.
Applehas more pricing power than almost anyone.5It raised prices on Macs and iPads at the end of June,then lifted the iPhone 17 by $100 in September;the iPhone 18 Pro now starts at $1,199 and the Pro Max at $1,299.
苹果拥有几乎无人能及的定价权。它在 6 月底上调了 Mac 和 iPad 的价格，9 月又把 iPhone 17 提价 100 美元；如今 iPhone 18 Pro 起价 1,199 美元，Pro Max 起价 1,299 美元。
PARA 11
It was not enough.The increasespassed on part of the higher component bill,and inventory bought earlier at lower prices covered another part;the guide suggests the remainder lands on Apple.
That inventory carryover6is the quiet cushion in the accounts.Devices sold this quarter were built with memory bought months ago, when contracts were cheaper,so reported margin flatters the current cost of production.As those stocks run down, the benefit fades — which is why Ternus expects memory costs to be higher again in the December quarter.
Boxes on racks in a warehouse. Devices built from older, cheaper inventory quietly lift the margin in a rising-cost cycle.仓库货架上的纸箱。用更便宜的旧库存造出的设备，会在成本上行周期里悄悄抬高当期毛利率。Photo: Pexels (royalty-free library image; not the original article's photography)
PARA 13
The harder signalis on the balance sheet.Apple's manufacturing purchase commitments7between the June and September quartersrose by $33 billion,a sum that buys supply rather than a discount.
Sabih Khan, the operations chief,saidMacs and iPads would be constrained in the holiday quarter mainly by memory,with demand running ahead of what Apple can build;a shift to 2-nanometre chips should ease the broader shortage, but not this quarter.
运营主管萨比赫·汗表示，假日季 Mac 和 iPad 的供应将主要受存储芯片限制，需求跑在苹果产能前面；向 2 纳米芯片过渡应能缓解更广泛的短缺，但本季度不行。
PARA 15
Serviceswere supposed to be the hedge,and they are slowing too.Revenuerose 9.8% to $31.6 billion, roughly in line,but Apple guided the December quarter to 8–9% against expectations of 10.7%.
That mattersmore than the arithmetic suggests.Services carry far higher margins than hardware,so a slower services line lowers the blended margin twice:once through revenue mix,8and once through the loss of the growth that had been offsetting component inflation.
Then there is the AI bill,which has arrived in the same cost line.Siri AI's cloud inference costs9will be bookedin cost of services and, like Maps and iCloud, deferred over the life of the device that shipped with them.
然后是 AI 的账单，它落在了同一条成本线上。Siri AI 的云端推理成本将计入服务成本，并像地图和 iCloud 一样，在随附设备的生命周期内递延确认。
PARA 18
The commercial answeris a paywall.Ternussaidfeatures that depend on server-side models, including Siri AI and some image editing, will carry usage limits,with heavier use sold through iCloud+.
商业上的答案是一道付费墙。特努斯表示，依赖服务器端模型的功能，包括 Siri AI 和部分图像编辑，将设使用上限，更高用量通过 iCloud+ 出售。
PARA 19
Chinawas the other surprise, in both directions.Greater China revenuerose 21% to $17.5 billion,a September-quarter record,and still missed expectations of about $18.8 billion by more than a billion.
The rest of the worldwas uneven.The Americas, Europe and Asia-Pacificgrew 10%, 11.5% and 15%,while Japan slipped 1.4%;by product, the iPhone rose 17.5% and the Mac 24%, but the iPad fell 10% and wearables 8%.
Chart 2 | Where the growth came from, and where it did not. Two hardware lines shrank while the iPhone and Greater China carried the quarter, and services — the highest-margin line — grew slowest of the three big businesses.Source: Apple's fiscal Q4 2026 results. Growth is year on year in reported dollars, not adjusted for currency.
PARA 21
The quarteralso missed the newest product.The foldable iPhone Duo went on sale after the 26 September cut-off,so none of its revenue is in these numbers, and supply is still short;a small number of screens have cracked, and Apple is replacing them.
这个季度也没算上最新的产品。折叠屏 iPhone Duo 在 9 月 26 日截止日之后才开售，所以它的收入一分也没进这份报表，而且供应仍然紧张；少量屏幕出现开裂，苹果正在更换。
PARA 22
What investors are really pricingis not this quarter but the next two years.Apple's shareshad added roughly a trillion dollars of value between June and the report,and a company valued for certainty is punished for ambiguity.
The bull caseis that memory is cyclical and selling prices are sticky on the way down.If Apple holds the prices it has already put through, and memory prices come off,gross marginrecovers without another increase— the same operating leverage in reverse.
The bear caseis that this cycle is longer.Goldman Sachsexpects NAND supply to stay tight into 2027,and sees average selling prices at Samsung and SK Hynix rising 34% and 30% next year,which is not a forecast that invites patience.
看空的理由是这个周期更长。高盛预计 NAND 供应紧张将持续到 2027 年，并预计三星与 SK 海力士明年的平均售价分别上涨 34% 和 30%，这不是一份让人有耐心的预测。
PARA 26
Applestill has room.It ended the quarter with $137 billion in cash and securities against $80 billion of debt,and returned $28 billion to shareholders in three months,including $24 billion of buybacks.
But moneydoes not buy memory that has not been made.The constraintis physical,and the price of the constraint is set by whoever is building the most data centres— which is no longer the company selling phones.
That is the inversion in this report.For a decadeAppleset the price of the most profitable object in consumer electronics;this quarter it discovered that one of its cheapest inputs is now priced by someone else's boom.
The record yearis real,and so is the bill.The question for the next four quartersis whether 47.9% marked the top of Apple's marginas well as the top of its revenue.
The share of revenue left after paying for the goods themselves — parts, assembly, freight — but before salaries, marketing, research and tax.
Why it matters here ▸ Apple's 47.9% becomes 45–46% in the guide. That two-to-three point gap is the whole story: the price of the phone barely moved, the cost of what goes inside it did.
Extended note: For hardware, gross margin is the cleanest read on pricing power: revenue per unit minus the bill of materials. Analysts adjust for one-offs before comparing quarters, because a single refund can move the line by a full point.
2Guidance/ˈɡaɪdns/点击看中文解释 ↓
A company's own forecast for the next quarter or year, published next to the results it has just reported.
Why it matters here ▸ Apple beat on the quarter and was sold on the guide. The market trades the forecast, not the past.
Extended note: A guide has three parts worth separating: the midpoint, the gap to consensus, and the reason given. When revenue guidance rises and margin guidance falls, the margin number usually wins, because it carries into every future quarter.
3One-off/ˌwʌn ˈɒf/点击看中文解释 ↓
A gain or cost that will not repeat, and so should be removed before one period is compared with another.
Why it matters here ▸ About a point of the 47.9% came from tariff refunds — money that will not arrive again this quarter.
Extended note: The test is repetition: a charge that appears in four consecutive years is a cost of doing business, not a one-off. Read the adjustment the company makes, then ask whether it would make the same adjustment next year.
4Cost of sales/kɒst əv seɪlz/点击看中文解释 ↓
The direct cost of the goods sold: components, manufacturing and shipping. Also called cost of goods sold.
Why it matters here ▸ Memory sits here, which is why a chip price reaches the gross-margin line so quickly.
Extended note: Because memory is a standardised part with a public contract price, it moves faster than design or assembly costs. That is why a memory cycle shows up in gross margin within one or two quarters, not years.
5Pricing power/ˈpraɪsɪŋ ˈpaʊə/点击看中文解释 ↓
The ability to raise prices without losing so many customers that the increase stops paying for itself.
Why it matters here ▸ Apple raised prices twice in four months and still guided margin down — a rare public measurement of where its pricing power ends.
定价权：在不流失过多客户的前提下提价的能力。
拓展知识：定价权来自三样东西：转换成本（换机麻烦）、品牌溢价、生态锁定。苹果三项都强，所以它能把 iPhone 提价 100 美元、把 Mac 与 iPad 一起提价，仍然卖出创纪录的销量。但定价权不是无限的：当成本涨幅超过消费者能接受的价格涨幅，公司只能自己吞下差额——这一次，差额就写在指引里。
Extended note: Pricing power is not binary. A company can have enough of it to pass through half of a cost increase and not the other half; the residual is what shows up as a margin cut.
Extended note: In an inflationary input cycle, older inventory is a silent profit centre. It reverses when prices fall, which is why companies rarely treat it as a reason to raise guidance.
Extended note: A jump in commitments is a hedge against shortage, not a claim about demand. It also front-loads cash outflows, which is why analysts read it next to inventory and capital spending.
8Revenue mix/ˈrevənjuː mɪks/点击看中文解释 ↓
The proportions in which different products or segments contribute to total revenue.
Why it matters here ▸ Services grow slower than hardware this quarter, so the high-margin slice shrinks — margin falls even if every unit stays profitable.
Extended note: Mix is arithmetic, not performance. A company can grow every line and still see margins fall, if the slowest-growing line is the most profitable one.
9Inference cost/ˈɪnfərəns kɒst/点击看中文解释 ↓
The cost of running a trained AI model to answer a request, usually paid to a cloud provider by the query.
Why it matters here ▸ Siri AI's cloud bill is booked in cost of services and deferred over each device's life — an AI cost that lands in gross margin.
Extended note: Training is capex; inference is cost of sales. That distinction explains why an AI feature can improve a product and still hurt a margin line in the same quarter.
to charge customers more in order to cover a rise in costs
Apple passed on part of the higher component bill, but not all of it.
转嫁（成本）：把上涨的成本通过提价转给客户
苹果转嫁了一部分更高的零部件账单，但不是全部。
strip out/strɪp aʊt/
to remove one item so that the underlying figure can be seen
Strip out the one-off and the picture darkens.
剔除（某一项），以看清底数
把一次性项目剔除，画面就更暗了。
walk someone through/wɔːk ˈsʌmwʌn θruː/
to explain something to someone step by step
Executives walked analysts through the outlook on the call.
向某人逐条讲解、带着过一遍
高管们在电话会上向分析师逐条解释了展望。
in line/ɪn laɪn/
matching what analysts had expected
Services revenue rose 9.8%, roughly in line with forecasts.
与预期相符、在预期线上
服务营收增长 9.8%，与预期大致相符。
run down/rʌn daʊn/
to use up a stock gradually until little is left
As those stocks run down, the benefit fades.
（库存）逐渐耗尽、用掉
随着这些库存耗尽，好处会消退。
put through/pʊt θruː/
to implement a price increase officially
Apple is holding the prices it has already put through.
正式实施（提价）
苹果守住了已经正式实施的提价。
come off/kʌm ɒf/
to fall from a high level
If memory prices come off, margin recovers without another increase.
（价格）回落、降下来
如果存储价格回落，毛利率不必再涨价就能恢复。
off to a slow start/ɒf tuː ə sləʊ stɑːt/
beginning something less well than people expected
The new chief executive is off to a slow start, one analyst said.
开局缓慢、起步不顺
一位分析师说，这位新首席执行官开局缓慢。
land on/lænd ɒn/
to end up being borne by someone
The guide suggests the remainder lands on Apple.
最终落到（某人）身上、由某人承担
指引显示，剩下的部分落在苹果身上。
读后测验 · Check Your Understanding
3 道题。点选项立即判分；解析需要单独点开。
Q1Which statement about the 47.9% gross margin Apple reported is accurate?
正确答案：A
第 6 段写明：9 月季度的数字包含约 1 个百分点的关税退款，「若去掉这一项，从 6 月以来的降幅比账面显示的 2.2 个百分点更陡」。B 与第 5 段相反——6 月是 50.1%，比它高；C 错在口径，存储成本正是销货成本的一部分，落在毛利之上；D 与第 10 段冲突，苹果 6 月与 9 月都提了价。 The September figure included about a percentage point of tariff refunds; without that, the fall from June was steeper than the reported 2.2 points.Note the qualifier "included": the reported number is flattered by a one-off, and the writer says so before drawing any conclusion.
Q2In paragraphs 11 and 12, what is the function of the point about inventory bought at lower prices?
正确答案：B
第 11 段先说涨价「还不够」，紧接着承认库存抵掉了一部分——这是让步（concession），不是反驳；第 12 段随即解释这块「垫子」会随库存耗尽而消失，因此当期毛利率高估了当下的真实成本。A 方向相反；C 因果倒置，指引是结果而不是来源；D 该段没有引语，是作者的说明。 That inventory carryover is the quiet cushion in the accounts.A concession is not a contradiction: the writer grants that the cushion exists in order to show that it is temporary.
Q3The writer calls the constraint "physical" and says Apple's input is now "priced by someone else's boom". What does this framing imply?
正确答案：B
「physical」与「someone else's boom」两个措辞把因果指向苹果之外：约束不是钱能解决的（第 27 段第一句直接说钱买不到还没造出来的芯片），价格由建数据中心的一方决定。A 被第 27 段否定；C 文中无据，高盛反而预计紧张持续到 2027 年；D 是过度推断，作者从未主张退出硬件。 But money does not buy memory that has not been made. The constraint is physical, and the price of the constraint is set by whoever is building the most data centres — which is no longer the company selling phones.Watch the adjectives: "physical" takes the problem out of finance, and "someone else's" takes it out of Apple's control.
