Annualised revenue takes one period and multiplies it to a full year. A fast-growing company might report $100m in a quarter and describe itself as a $400m business — a run rate, not a forecast.
年化收入是把某一期的收入放大成一整年。高速增长的公司可能单季 1 亿美元,就说自己是 4 亿美元的企业——那是 run rate,不是预测。
Annualising is a presentation choice, and it flatters fast growers. A company that doubled quarter on quarter can show an annualised number four times its actual revenue. That is not dishonest, but it is not comparable with a company reporting twelve months of audited sales — and the gap is where valuation mistakes happen.
年化是一种呈现方式,尤其美化高增长公司。环比翻倍的公司,年化数字可以是实际收入的四倍。
这不违规,但它和一家报了十二个月经审计销售额的公司不可比——估值错误就出在这个不可比上。
| Move变动 | Where it appeared出现位置 | What it means这句话在说什么 |
|---|---|---|
| $50bn | The AI trade meets a $20 billion reality check 年化收入 · 第 1 张术语卡 | OpenAI said its figure was about $50 billion at the end of September. The $70 billion in circulation was the same business measured with someone else's ruler. 这类指标在硅谷很流行,因为它能让一家成立三年的公司说出一个「像大公司」的数字。但读的时候要问三件事:① 用的是哪个月(旺季还是淡季);② 是毛额还是净额;③ 有没有把一次性的、还没收到钱的合同算进去。真正上市之后,财报上会同时给出实际年度营收 —— 两个数字往往相差不小,这本身不是造假,只是口径不同。 |
| $10.8bn | Wall Street expects Meta's AI agent to shape into a new revenue engine 年化收入 · 第 8 张术语卡 | Jefferies speaks of “$10.8 billion in annualized revenue” by 2027 — a scenario built on two assumptions, not a forecast Meta has given. 读研报时先分清三个词:actual(已发生)、annualized(把短期数字放大)、estimate/model(假设推出来的)。本文的 108 亿美元属于第三类,而且带条件——「如果」10 亿用户、「如果」3% 付费。看到「年化」两个字,先找它的基数是多少天的数据。 |
Annualised revenue is guidance
It is arithmetic on the past, not a forecast of the future.
Run rate is comparable across companies
Only if growth and seasonality are similar.
It is a GAAP number
It is usually a non-GAAP metric, defined by the company.
· annualised revenue
· run rate
· ARR
· on an annualised basis
· quarterly revenue of
annualised revenue 年化收入;run rate 运行率;ARR 年度经常性收入;on an annualised basis 按年化口径;quarterly revenue of 季度营收为。
· annualised vs annual (actual full-year)
· ARR vs revenue
annualised 是放大出来的年率,annual 是实际全年;ARR 只算经常性收入,revenue 含全部收入。
The company said it was operating at an annualised revenue of $Xbn.
表述句:公司称其年化收入运行在 X 亿美元——operating at 暗示这是当前速度,不是承诺。
“OpenAI said its figure was about $50 billion at the end of September. The $70 billion in circulation was the…”
“Jefferies speaks of “$10.8 billion in annualized revenue” by 2027 — a scenario built on two assumptions, not…”