The chance of an outcome far from the average, in the thin ends of a distribution. Unlikely, but large enough to hurt.
尾部风险
| Move变动 | Where it appeared出现位置 | What it means这句话在说什么 |
|---|---|---|
| — | The tenth of a point that moved the whole curve 尾部风险 · 第 7 张术语卡 | Catrambone used it for a 50 basis-point move: priced at about 13 per cent, not the base case. 「尾部」来自正态分布的钟形曲线：中间厚、两头薄。财经语境里它常指被市场低估的极端情形，因为常规模型假设钟形，而危机时两头会变厚（fat tails）。本期说「50 个基点是尾部风险」，意思是它不是主线，但已经贵到值得买保险——利率期权与短端期货里能看出来。 |