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Risk and return

风险与收益 必备基础
method 0 篇文章 更新于 2026-11-12 15:24 CEFR B2

01定义Definition

Risk and return is the trade-off at the centre of finance: higher expected returns require accepting more uncertainty. An investment that promises a high return with no risk is usually mispriced or fraudulent.

风险与收益是金融的核心权衡:想要更高的预期回报,就必须接受更大的不确定性。一项承诺高回报却毫无风险的投资,通常要么定价错了,要么是骗局。

02它怎么运作How it works

STEP 01
Define the risk
先说清是什么风险:价格、信用、流动性。
STEP 02
Demand compensation
为承担这份风险要求额外回报。
STEP 03
Price it against a risk-free rate
与无风险利率比较,得出溢价。
STEP 04
Diversify what is free to remove
能免费分散掉的风险,市场不给补偿。

03为什么重要Why it matters

Only undiversifiable risk earns a premium. Losing money because one company fails can be spread across a portfolio, so the market does not pay you for it. Losing money because the whole market falls cannot be diversified away, so it does. This is why the equity risk premium exists, and why leverage does not raise expected returns — it just scales both the gain and the loss.

只有无法分散的风险才配得到溢价。因为一家公司倒闭而亏钱,可以通过组合分散掉,市场不会为此付你钱;因为整个市场下跌而亏钱,分散不掉,所以市场会付。

这就是股权风险溢价存在的原因,也是杠杆不提高预期收益的原因——它只是把赚和亏同时放大。

05常见误读Common misreadings

Looks like看着像

Higher risk means higher return

Actually其实是

Higher expected return. The realised result can be a loss.

「风险越高回报越高」——是预期回报更高;实际结果可能是亏钱。
Looks like看着像

Volatility is the only risk

Actually其实是

Credit, liquidity and concentration risk are often worse.

「波动率是唯一的风险」——信用、流动性、集中度风险往往更致命。
Looks like看着像

Leverage raises returns

Actually其实是

It raises the spread, not the expected return per unit of risk.

「杠杆提高回报」——它提高的是权益的利差,不是每单位风险的预期回报。

06语言笔记Language notes

Collocations固定搭配

· risk-adjusted return
· the equity risk premium
· risk appetite
· a favourable risk-reward
· downside risk

risk-adjusted return 风险调整后回报;the equity risk premium 股权风险溢价;risk appetite 风险偏好;a favourable risk-reward 有利的风险回报比;downside risk 下行风险。

Don't confuse易混

· risk vs uncertainty
· volatility vs permanent loss

risk 是可量化的概率,uncertainty 是连概率都不知道;volatility 是波动,permanent loss 是永久损失。

Sentence pattern句型

Investors demanded a higher risk premium, pushing the yield to X%.

定价句:投资者要求更高的风险溢价,把收益率推到 X%——demanded 说明这是投资者要的补偿。

07一张图看懂One picture

More return, more wobble0122436Expected returnTypical swingCashBondsEquitiesVentureIllustrative long-run averages. The second line is the price of the first.
The return line is what gets advertised. The swing line is what gets experienced.
回报那条线是被宣传的,波动那条线才是被真实经历的;两线之间的落差,就是风险的代价。

08延伸阅读Further reading

09出现在这些文章里Appears in

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