Official definition · 官方定义
“The Yield Curve is a graphical representation of the interest rates on debt for a range of maturities.”[1]
— Corporate Finance Institute, CFI Resource Library · corporatefinanceinstitute.com ↗ · accessed 2026-10-25
The yield curve plots yields across maturities, from overnight to thirty years. Normally it slopes upward, because lending for longer carries more risk. When short rates sit above long rates, the curve is inverted.
收益率曲线把从隔夜到三十年的各期限收益率画在一起。正常情况下向上倾斜，因为借得越久风险越大。当短端利率高于长端，就是倒挂。
An inverted curve has preceded every US recession since the 1960s, usually by six to eighteen months. The logic is that long yields fall when investors expect weaker growth and rate cuts. But the signal is about timing, not certainty: the curve can invert for a year before anything happens, and this time the term premium was so low that inversion may have said less than it used to.
1960 年代以来，美国每一次衰退之前收益率曲线都倒挂过，通常提前六到十八个月。逻辑是：投资者预期增长走弱、要降息时，长端收益率会下行。
但这个信号只给时间窗口，不给确定性：倒挂可以持续一年才出事。而且这轮期限溢价极低，倒挂说的话可能比过去少。
| Move变动 | Where it appeared出现位置 | What it means这句话在说什么 |
|---|---|---|
| — | The tenth of a point that moved the whole curve 收益率曲线 · 第 5 张术语卡 | The whole curve moved on Tuesday, but the short end moved most, so the curve flattened rather than shifted. 曲线的三种常态：正常上斜（期限越长利率越高，因为不确定性更大）、平坦（市场认为加息快结束了）、倒挂（短端高于长端，历史上常出现在衰退前）。本期是「短端跳得比长端多」，也就是曲线变平——市场认为央行会更狠，但不认为长期通胀会失控。 |
| 1.89% | Japan's 20-year bond sale sees strongest demand on record 收益率曲线 · 第 9 张术语卡 | Japan's curve runs from 1.89% at two years to about 4% at 30 years. A strong 20-year sale pushes the long end down — a flattening. 曲线有三种常见形态：正常（长端高于短端）、平坦（几乎一样）、倒挂（短端高于长端）。倒挂常被当作衰退前兆，因为它意味着市场认为央行迟早要降息。日本现在不是倒挂，而是「陡」——短端 1.89%、30 年约 4%，说明市场认为通胀与财政风险会长期存在。长端拍卖走强会让曲线变平，这是市场在说：远端的价格，终于有人认了。 |
| — | U.S. bond-market slide deepens, pushing yields to two-decade highs 收益率曲线 · 第 5 张术语卡 | “Pressure is starting to build up on the short end of the yield curve” — the short end is the 2- to 5-year zone, the part most sensitive to Fed policy. That is exactly where Wednesday's damage was worst. 三种形态：① 正常上倾（长端更高）；② 平坦；③ 倒挂（短端高于长端，历史上常预示衰退）。「短端承压」意味着市场认为央行还要继续加息。看曲线是判断「市场怕通胀还是怕衰退」最快的方法。 |
Inversion causes a recession
It reflects expectations. The causal chain runs through credit, not the curve itself.
The curve is one number
It is a shape. The 10y-2y and 10y-3m spreads can disagree.
Steepening is always bullish
A bear steepener (long yields up) is often bad news for equities.
· the curve inverted
· a bear steepener
· term premium
· the 2s10s spread
· curve steepening
the curve inverted 曲线倒挂；a bear steepener 熊陡；term premium 期限溢价；the 2s10s spread 2 年与 10 年利差；curve steepening 曲线变陡。
· inversion vs flattening
· bear steepener vs bull steepener
inversion 是倒挂，flattening 是平坦化；bear steepener 由长端上行驱动，bull steepener 由短端下行驱动。
The 2s10s spread turned negative for the first time since X, a classic recession signal.
信号句：2s10s 利差自 X 以来首次转负，是典型的衰退信号——turned negative 是倒挂的标准说法。
“The whole curve moved on Tuesday, but the short end moved most, so the curve flattened rather than shifted.”
“Japan's curve runs from 1.89% at two years to about 4% at 30 years. A strong 20-year sale pushes the long end…”
““Pressure is starting to build up on the short end of the yield curve” — the short end is the 2- to 5-year zo…”