A trading desk before the New York open. On a CPI morning the first row traders watch is not the index but the two-year.
Photo: Pexels (stock image, not the original article’s picture).
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America’s core consumer prices rose 0.3% in October, a tenth above forecasts and the third such month. The two-year Treasury yield jumped 17 basis points, its biggest one-day rise in nineteen months, as traders priced a December rate hike.
America’s bond markethad spent five weeks rallying,and it gave much of that back on Tuesday morning.The October inflation reportlanded at 8.30,and within minutes the whole curve had repriced.
The headline figurewas 0.4 per cent for the month,slower than September’s 0.6but above the 0.3 that economists had expected.Core inflation1which leaves out food and energy, rose 0.3 per cent.
Thatwas a tenth above forecastsand the third month in a row at that pace.A tenth of a pointsounds small,but 0.3 per cent a month compounds to roughly 3.6 per cent a year.
The Fed’s target of 2 per centallows only about 0.17 per cent a month,so the gap is not a rounding error.Inside the index,shelterrose 0.3 per cent and produced more than thirty per cent of the monthly increase.
Foodrose 0.5 per cent and energy 0.7,so the pressure was not confined to one corner of the index.That breadthis what officials meanwhen they say inflation has spread.
Chart 1 | Both measures came in a tenth above forecast; core has now printed 0.3 per cent for three months.Actual: BLS, 10 November 2026. Forecast: consensus as reported by Bloomberg and Xinhua. Core is shown because it is the number the Fed watches.
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One detail shaped the reaction more than any other:because the government was shut down in October 2025,the bureaucould not collect that month’s prices.It thereforepublished no annual figure at all.
The components explain more than the total: shelter alone produced over thirty per cent of the monthly rise, with food and energy adding a little more.物价的分项比总数更能说明问题：住房一项就占了当月涨幅的三成以上，食品和能源再各加一点，「通胀在向整个经济扩散」这个判断就是这么来的。Photo: Pexels (stock image, not the original article’s picture).
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With the annual number missing,the monthly decimalcarried the whole weight, and there was nothing to smooth it against.A number that normally sits inside a trendbecame the trend itself.
The two-year yield,the part of the market closest to the Fed’s next move,jumped 17 basis points to 4.73 per cent2.Thatwas its biggest one-day rise since April 2025.
The ten-year yield3climbed as much as 14 basis pointsand traded back above 5 per cent.The whole curve5moved, but the short end moved furthest,so the curve flattened rather than shifted.
The move did not begin with the data:hours earlier,Fed governor Christopher Wallersaid in Londonthat he would support a half-point increase if inflation kept accelerating.
Thatmatteredbecause 50 basis points is not the default.Since Kevin Warsh became chairman,the Fedhas raised rates once: a quarter point in September, then a pause in October.
Warsh has also droppedhis predecessors’ habitof guiding markets about future decisions.Without that guidance6,every data releasebecomes a small referendum on the central bank.
Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Fed,went further.Shesaid at least two more quarter-point rises were needed,and called the current 3.75 to 4 per cent range too low4.
Futuresnow treat a December increase as certain,with about a 13 per cent chance of 50 basis points.Three quarter-point movesare priced by June,and the odds of a bigger move have risen since the report.
Goldman Sachsis less aggressive.Its chief US economistexpects a quarter point in December and a third in March 2027,which would leave the rate at 4.25 to 4.5 per cent.
Chart 2 | Futures price three quarter-point hikes by June; Goldman Sachs stops at two, with a peak of 4.25 to 4.5 per cent.Market path: fed funds futures on 10 November 2026, upper bound. Forecast: Goldman Sachs via David Mericle. Both are expectations, not decisions.
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The supply sidetold the same story, and it was not a comforting one.At Tuesday’s ten-year auction8,the notescleared at 5.02 per cent,above where they had been trading beforehand.
A 5 per cent ten-yearis not only a bond-market number.Mortgages, corporate loans and the rate used to discount future profitsall take their cue from it.
Equitiesare the next link in the chain.A higher discount rate9hurts the longest-dated cash flows most,which is why the AI names are the most exposed.
股票是这条链条上的下一环。更高的折现率对最远期的现金流伤害最大，这就是为什么 AI 板块最为暴露。
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And yet, on Wednesday,the Nasdaqrose 1.66 per centas CoreWeave’s results revived the AI trade.For one session,stocks and bonds priced different worlds.
然而到了周三，纳斯达克上涨 1.66%，因为 CoreWeave 的财报重新点燃了 AI 交易。有一个交易日，股票和债券定价的是两个世界。
Stocks and bonds can disagree for a session: the Nasdaq rose 1.66 per cent on Wednesday as the AI trade revived, while the ten-year stayed near 5 per cent.股债可以有一个交易日各说各话：周三纳指因 AI 交易回暖涨 1.66%，而十年期仍在 5% 附近不肯下来。Photo: Pexels (stock image, not the original article’s picture).
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The currency marketagreed with the bond market.The dollarrose 0.64 per cent against a basket of currencies to a four-week high,and gold, which pays no coupon,fell 1.8 per cent to $4,040 an ounce.
The same repricing travels: a firmer dollar and weaker gold, because gold pays no coupon and loses ground when rates rise.同一次重定价也会出口到汇率与贵金属：美元走强、黄金下跌，因为黄金不付利息，利率一高就吃亏。Photo: Pexels (stock image, not the original article’s picture).
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The reversal was sharpbecause the previous five weeks had run the other way.Bonds rallied as AI stocks slid,and oil fell on hopes that the Iran war would end;both supportswere swept aside on Tuesday.
“Inflation isn’t moving closer to the Fed’s target,”said George Catrambone of DWS.“The market is flagging there’s a tail risk7of a 50-basis-point hike.”
Before the meeting on 8 and 9 December,the Fedgets one producer-price report and one payrolls report.Neitherwill settle the question,because the question is no longer whether to tighten, but by how much.
In a market with no annual figure and no forward guidance,thatis what a tenth of a point can do.It stops being a rounding errorand becomes the only thing to trade on.
Extended note: Food and energy are driven by supply shocks a central bank cannot control, so core is the trend measure. Its blind spot is shelter, which is roughly two-fifths of the index and responds to rates only after a year or more.
2basis point/ˈbeɪsɪs pɔɪnt/点击看中文解释 ↓
One hundredth of a percentage point. A move from 4.56 to 4.73 per cent is 17 basis points.
Why it matters here ▸ The two-year yield rose 17 basis points in a day, which is a large move for a government bond.
Extended note: One basis point is 0.01 per cent. On a $1 billion portfolio with a duration of five years, a single basis point is about $500,000 of value, which is why the unit is used at all.
3Treasury yield/ˈtreʒəri jiːld/点击看中文解释 ↓
The interest rate the US government pays to borrow, for a given length of time. Price and yield move in opposite directions.
Why it matters here ▸ The ten-year went back above 5 per cent, and the two-year reached 4.73 per cent.
Extended note: A yield is a price seen from the other side: fixed coupons mean a higher yield requires a lower price, so existing holders lose on the day. Only new debt pays the new rate.
4policy rate/ˈpɒləsi reɪt/点击看中文解释 ↓
The rate a central bank sets as its target, which then feeds into every other borrowing cost. In the US it is the federal funds rate, now 3.75 to 4 per cent.
Why it matters here ▸ The Fed has raised it once since Kevin Warsh took over, and officials argue the current range is still too low.
Extended note: The policy rate is the wholesale price; mortgages and corporate bonds are retail. The two-year note moves first because it prices the expected path, not today's decision.
5yield curve/jiːld kɜːv/点击看中文解释 ↓
A line joining the yields of every maturity, from one month to thirty years. Its shape shows what the market expects from growth and inflation.
Why it matters here ▸ The whole curve moved on Tuesday, but the short end moved most, so the curve flattened rather than shifted.
Extended note: Upward sloping is normal; flat says the hiking cycle is near its end; inverted has often preceded recessions. A short-end-led selloff flattens the curve without raising long-run inflation expectations.
6forward guidance/ˈfɔːwəd ˈɡaɪdns/点击看中文解释 ↓
When a central bank tells markets what it expects to do next, so that policy works before the decision is even made.
Why it matters here ▸ Warsh has dropped the practice, which is why one monthly decimal now moves prices so far.
Extended note: Guidance tightens conditions before any decision, at the cost of tying the bank's hands. Removing it passes the volatility back to the data releases.
7tail risk/teɪl rɪsk/点击看中文解释 ↓
The chance of an outcome far from the average, in the thin ends of a distribution. Unlikely, but large enough to hurt.
Why it matters here ▸ Catrambone used it for a 50 basis-point move: priced at about 13 per cent, not the base case.
Extended note: The tails are the thin ends of a distribution, and markets routinely underprice them because models assume thinner tails than crises deliver.
8auction/ˈɔːkʃn/点击看中文解释 ↓
The scheduled sale of government debt, where dealers bid for yield. The average accepted yield is the clearing yield.
Why it matters here ▸ Tuesday's ten-year auction cleared at 5.02 per cent, above the market, which means buyers demanded a discount.
Extended note: Three numbers matter: the clearing yield versus the pre-auction level, the bid-to-cover ratio, and the share taken by indirect bidders. Weakness in all three is the real signal.
9discount rate/ˈdɪskaʊnt reɪt/点击看中文解释 ↓
The rate used to turn future money into today’s value. The higher it is, the less a payment ten years away is worth now.
Why it matters here ▸ This is the bridge from the bond market to the stock market: a 5 per cent ten-year raises the rate applied to AI profits.
Extended note: A valuation is a sum of discounted cash flows. Raising the rate shrinks the far-dated ones most, which is why long-duration growth stocks react hardest to a move in the ten-year.
To lose what you had earned. Used about prices and profits: a rally that gives back its gains ends near where it started.
The market gave much of the gains back within an hour of the report.
把赚到的还回去。用于价格与利润：涨势把涨幅吐出来，收盘又回到起点附近。
报告出来不到一小时，市场就把大部分涨幅交了回去。
strip out/strɪp aʊt/
To remove one part before measuring the rest. Statistics often strip out food and energy because those prices jump around.
The core index strips out food and energy.
剔除、去掉某一部分再算其余。统计里常说「剔除食品和能源」，因为这两项波动太大。
核心指数剔除食品和能源。
in a row/ɪn ə rəʊ/
Happening several times without a break. Three months in a row means three consecutive months, not three in total.
Core inflation has printed 0.3 per cent for three months in a row.
连续、接连。in a row 指不间断的连续，不是「一共三次」。
核心通胀已经连续三个月落在 0.3%。
carry weight/ˈkæri weɪt/
To bear the importance or the burden. If one number carries the whole weight, everything depends on it.
With no annual figure published, the monthly decimal carried the whole weight.
承担分量、承受压力。一个数字「承担了全部分量」，意思是所有判断都压在它身上。
由于没有公布同比，这个月度小数就承担了全部分量。
price in/praɪs ɪn/
To build an expectation into today's price. If a hike is priced in, it has already happened as far as the market is concerned.
Three quarter-point moves are priced in by June.
把预期计入价格。若某次加息「已被定价」，对市场来说它等于已经发生，公布时反而不会再有反应。
到明年 6 月为止的三次 25 个基点加息，已被计入价格。
on hold/ɒn həʊld/
Kept unchanged for now. A central bank on hold has not stopped tightening; it has only stopped for this meeting.
The Fed raised rates in September and then held in October.
按兵不动、暂时维持不变。央行 on hold 不等于结束紧缩，只是这一次没动。
美联储 9 月加息，10 月按兵不动。
sweep aside/swiːp əˈsaɪd/
To push something out of the way quickly, as if it did not matter. In markets, one strong data point can sweep aside a week of other news.
Both supports were swept aside on Tuesday.
扫到一边、置之不理。市场里一个强数据可以把一周的其它消息全部盖掉。
周二，这两根支柱都被扫到一边。
clear at/klɪər æt/
The yield at which an auction is settled. To clear above the market means buyers demanded a higher yield, i.e. a lower price.
The ten-year cleared at 5.02 per cent, above where it had been trading.
拍卖以某个收益率成交。中标收益率高于二级市场，说明买家要求折价，也就是需求偏弱。
十年期以 5.02% 中标，高于拍卖前的成交水平。
run ahead of/rʌn əˈhed ɒv/
To be further along than something else. If the market runs ahead of a forecast, it has priced more hikes than the analyst expects.
Futures are running ahead of Goldman’s forecast by one hike.
跑在……前面。市场「跑在预测前面」，指它已经定价了比分析师预测更多的加息。
期货比高盛的预测多跑了一次加息。
读后测验 · Check Your Understanding
3 道题。点选项立即判分；解析需要单独点开。
Q1What exactly does the 0.3 per cent in the first paragraph measure?
正确答案：B
三个限定词缺一不可：core（剔除食品与能源）、month on month（环比）、0.3%。A 项错在 annual——本篇的特殊之处正是当月没有同比数据；C 项把「剔除」读成了「只剩」；D 项把债市行情当成了物价。原文写的是 the core measure, which leaves out food and energy, rose 0.3 per cent。 The core measure, which leaves out food and energy, rose 0.3 per cent.A confuses monthly with annual, C reverses what “core” excludes, and D describes a bond, not a price index.
Q2Why did the two-year yield move further than the ten-year?
正确答案：B
这是「短端 vs 长端」的分工问题。2 年期只覆盖未来两年，几乎全部由政策路径决定，所以加息预期一变，它弹得最猛；10 年期还要加上长期通胀、财政供给与增长预期，同样的消息对它只是部分影响——这正是原文所说的 not by the same amount。A、C 都与事实不符（10 年期由市场定价，不是财政部定）；D 说反了方向，收益率上升对应的是卖出。 The two-year yield, the part of the market closest to the Fed’s next move, jumped 17 basis points.B states the maturity split correctly; A and C are factually wrong, and D reverses cause and effect.
Q3If November’s core figure also comes in at 0.3 per cent, what does the article suggest is most likely?
正确答案：B
文章给了两条线索：沃勒说若核心持续 0.3% 就应考虑 50 个基点；佩莱则说 12 月的辩论是「25 还是 50，而不是零还是 25」。再加一句「连续第三个月 0.3%」被官员称为不可接受的速度，推断方向很清楚。A 项与全文相反；C 项没有任何依据，收益率在加息预期下通常是上行；D 项把统计局的发布问题当成了政策工具。 The debate will likely be between 25 versus 50 basis points at the December meeting, not zero versus 25.B follows from Waller’s condition and Pelle’s framing; the others contradict the direction of the piece.
