财经外刊精读 · 互动版 · B1 入门

US consumer sentiment sinks to its second-lowest level on record

美国消费者信心跌至有记录以来第二低
2026 年 10 月 25 日 · 星期日 本期：消费信心 · 通胀预期 · 美联储（CEFR B1）
A shopper walks down a supermarket aisle lined with shelves of drinks and packaged food
The weekly shop: the part of the economy most households feel first.
Photo: Unsplash (illustrative; not from the original report)

30 秒速读

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US consumer sentiment fell to 48.0 in October, the second-lowest reading on record, as high prices kept eating into purchasing power. Inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, complicating the Federal Reserve's next move.

10 月美国消费者信心降至 48.0，为有记录以来第二低，因为高物价持续侵蚀购买力。通胀预期升至 4.7%，令美联储的下一步更难走。

48.0
October index — down from 48.1 in September, and the second-lowest reading on record.
10 月指数——低于 9 月的 48.1，为有记录以来第二低。
44.8
All-time low — set in May, just after the Iran war began and fuel prices jumped.
历史最低点——出现在 5 月，伊朗战争刚开始、油价跳涨之后。
46.7
Current conditions — down from 50.9; buying conditions for big goods fell 18%.
当前状况指数——从 50.9 下滑；大件商品的购买条件跌 18%。
4.7%
Expected inflation, next 12 months — up from 4.6% in September and 3.4% in February.
未来 12 个月预期通胀——高于 9 月的 4.6%，也远高于 2 月的 3.4%。
3.5%
Expected inflation, next five years — above the 2.8%–3.2% range recorded in 2024.
未来五年预期通胀——高于 2024 年 2.8%–3.2% 的区间。
3.75–4.00%
Fed policy rate — raised in September; a hold is expected at next week's meeting.
美联储政策利率——9 月刚上调；下周会议预计维持不变。

原文精读 · Full Text

25 段（含标题）。点每段右上角的「译」展开中文翻译与结构配色；配图已就近排在相关段落之后。
颜色 = 句子成分，中英同色表示对应
主语 Subject 谓语 / 动词 Verb 宾语 · 表语 Object 从句 · 非谓语 Clause 状语 Adverbial 插入语 · 引述 Attribution
TITLE
US consumer sentiment1 sinks to its second-lowest level on record
美国消费者信心跌至有记录以来第二低水平
PARA 01
On Friday, the University of Michigan published its October survey of consumers. The main index2 fell to 48.0 from 48.1 in September.
周五，密歇根大学发布了 10 月的消费者调查。主要指数降至 48.0，9 月为 48.1。
PARA 02
That is the second-lowest reading on record. Only May was lower, at 44.8, soon after the Iran war began.
这是有记录以来第二低的读数。只有 5 月更低，为 44.8，当时伊朗战争刚刚开始。
Figure 1 | Fresh produce on a supermarket shelf. Food is the price people see every week.
Figure 1 | Fresh produce on a supermarket shelf. Food is the price people see every week. 超市货架上的新鲜蔬果。食品是普通人每周都能看到的价格。 Photo: Unsplash (illustrative; not from the original report)
PARA 03
Economists had expected 46.3 for October. The final figure beat that forecast, but it was still 10% below last October and 15% below February.
经济学家原本预期 10 月为 46.3。最终数字高于这个预期，但仍比去年 10 月低 10%，比 2 月低 15%。
PARA 04
The problem is purchasing power.3 Prices are eating into paychecks, so each dollar buys less. “Purchasing power continues to dominate consumer views of the economy,” said Joanne Hsu, who runs the survey.
问题在于购买力。物价正在侵蚀工资，所以每一美元能买到的东西更少。“购买力仍在主导消费者对经济的看法，”负责这项调查的 Joanne Hsu 说。
The index is back near its May low University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, selected months Feb 2026 (pre-war) 56.5 May 2026 44.8 Sept 2026 48.1 Oct 2026 48.0
Chart 1 | Consumer sentiment: 56.5 in February, 44.8 in May, 48.1 in September, 48.0 in October. February value implied by the survey's statement that October was 15% below February. Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
PARA 05
The survey has two parts, and in October they moved in opposite directions. Current conditions fell to 46.7 from 50.9.
这项调查分为两部分，而在 10 月两者走向相反。当前状况指数从 50.9 降至 46.7。
PARA 06
Expectations, which look at the next year, rose to 48.8 from 46.3. In plain terms, Americans feel worse about today and a little better about next year.
预期指数衡量的是未来一年，升至 48.8，9 月为 46.3。说白了，美国人对今天感觉更差，对明年略好一点。
Worse about today, a little better about next year Current conditions vs expectations, September and October 2026 Now · Sept 50.9 Now · Oct 46.7 Next year · Sept 46.3 Next year · Oct 48.8
Chart 2 | Current conditions fell to 46.7 while expectations rose to 48.8. Both are components of the same survey. The index is scaled so that February 1966 equals 100. Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
PARA 07
The weakest area was buying conditions for durable goods.6 These are costly things that last, such as cars and furniture. This measure fell 18% in one month.
最弱的一项是耐用品的购买条件。这类商品价格高、能用很久，比如汽车和家具。这项指标一个月里跌了 18%。
PARA 08
Two forces are behind the drop. Interest rates7 are high, so a car loan costs more.
两股力量造成了这次下跌。利率很高，所以车贷更贵。
Figure 2 | Paying by card at the counter. When borrowing costs rise, big purchases wait.
Figure 2 | Paying by card at the counter. When borrowing costs rise, big purchases wait. 刷卡付款。借钱变贵时，大件购买就会被推迟。 Photo: Unsplash (illustrative; not from the original report)
PARA 09
Prices are high too, so the car itself costs more. About 69% of consumers expect rates to rise further. That is the highest share since April 2023. Rates and prices are pulling in the same direction.
物价也高，所以车本身也更贵。约 69% 的消费者预计利率还会继续上升。这是 2023 年 4 月以来的最高比例。利率和物价正朝同一个方向用力。
PARA 10
Inflation expectations4 also rose. Consumers now expect prices to climb 4.7% over the next year. That is up from 4.6% in September and 3.4% in February.
通胀预期也上升了。消费者现在预计未来一年物价上涨 4.7%。这高于 9 月的 4.6%，也远高于 2 月的 3.4%。
Figure 3 | A week of groceries. Essentials keep selling even when confidence falls.
Figure 3 | A week of groceries. Essentials keep selling even when confidence falls. 一周的食品采购。即使信心下滑，必需品照样要买。 Photo: Unsplash (illustrative; not from the original report)
PARA 11
The five-year measure rose to 3.5% from 3.4%. That is above the 2.8%–3.2% range of 2024. Expectations matter because they can become real.
五年期指标升至 3.5%，9 月为 3.4%。这高于 2024 年 2.8%–3.2% 的区间。预期之所以重要，是因为它可能变成现实。
PARA 12
When workers expect higher prices, they ask for bigger raises. When firms expect higher prices, they raise prices early.
当工人预期物价上涨，他们会要求更大的加薪。当企业预期物价上涨，它们会提前涨价。
PARA 13
The Federal Reserve8 watches these numbers closely. It wants inflation at 2%,5 a target it has missed for more than five years. In September, it raised rates for the first time since 2023.
美联储密切关注这些数字。它希望通胀降到 2%，这个目标已经五年多没有实现。今年 9 月，美联储自 2023 年以来首次加息。
PARA 14
Officials meet next week in Washington. Most economists expect them to hold rates at 3.75% to 4.00%.
官员们下周在华盛顿开会。多数经济学家预计他们会把利率维持在 3.75%–4.00%。
PARA 15
But futures markets see about an 80% chance of a rise in December. A rate rise would make loans more expensive again.
但期货市场认为约有 80% 的可能在 12 月加息。加息会让贷款再次变贵。
PARA 16
The answers also divide by politics. Sentiment among independents fell to 42.4, from 47.7. Democrats and Republicans both improved slightly.
这些答案也因政治立场而不同。独立派受访者的信心从 47.7 降至 42.4。民主党人和共和党人都略有改善。
PARA 17
Since January, more people in every group say inflation is hurting their finances. The share rose 27% among independents and 52% among Republicans.
自 1 月以来，每个群体中都有更多人表示通胀正在损害他们的财务。这一比例在独立派中上升 27%，在共和党人中上升 52%。
PARA 18
Households with little money in the stock market complain more about prices, and many are tightening their belts. Share prices have risen on the AI boom, but most families own few shares. For them, the stock market is not the economy.
在股市里钱不多的家庭对物价的抱怨更多，很多人还在勒紧裤腰带。股价因 AI 热潮上涨，但多数家庭持股很少。对他们来说，股市不等于经济。
PARA 19
Consumer spending has stayed strong, and that is the puzzle. Joanne Hsu offers one explanation: some families may be buying now to avoid higher prices later.
消费支出一直保持强劲，而这正是谜题所在。Joanne Hsu 给出一种解释：一些家庭可能是为了避开以后的涨价而提前购买。
PARA 20
If so, the spending is precautionary, not confident. That makes the Fed's job harder: a rate rise could hit families already struggling to make ends meet.
如果真是这样，这种支出是预防性的，而非出于信心。这让美联储更难办：加息可能打击本已难以维持收支的家庭。
PARA 21
The survey lands two weeks before the midterm elections on November 3, with millions already voting early. Voters will decide who controls Congress. For many, prices are the issue that matters most.
这份调查发布的时间，是 11 月 3 日中期选举前两周，数百万人已提前投票。选民将决定谁掌控国会。对很多人来说，物价才是最重要的议题。
PARA 22
For shops, the message is simple. Customers will still buy food and essentials, but they will think twice about a new car or a sofa.
对商店来说，信息很简单。顾客仍会买食品和必需品，但买新车或沙发前会三思。
PARA 23
That caution can slow the whole economy, because consumer spending is about two-thirds of US output.
这种谨慎会拖慢整个经济，因为消费支出约占美国产出的三分之二。
PARA 24
One number cannot explain everything, but 48.0 says something clear: Americans are watching every dollar. Until prices slow, that mood is unlikely to change.
一个数字不能解释一切，但 48.0 说得很清楚：美国人正在盯着每一美元花。在物价放缓之前，这种情绪很难改变。

核心术语 · Glossary

编号与正文上标一一对应，点正文里的数字可跳到对应卡片。默认只显示英文解释（练阅读）；想看中文，点卡片标题。
1Consumer sentiment/kənˈsjuːmə ˈsentɪmənt/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

How people feel about their own money and the economy. It comes from surveys, not from sales data.

Why it matters here ▸ Here it fell to 48.0, the second-lowest reading ever recorded.

消费者信心：消费者对自己财务状况与整体经济的主观感受，用问卷调查衡量，不看销售数据。

拓展知识：它和「消费支出」不是同一件事：信心低不等于立刻不花钱，但会先影响可以推迟的大额购买。中国也有同类指标（国家统计局按月发布消费者信心指数），用法一样——看趋势，不看单点。
Extended note: Sentiment is a survey measure, not a spending measure. It shows up in big-ticket purchases before it shows up in grocery bills.
2Index/ˈɪndeks/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

One number that puts many answers together, so you can compare one month with another.

Why it matters here ▸ The main index combines answers on personal finances, business conditions and buying plans.

指数：把很多问题的答案合成一个数字，方便逐月比较。

拓展知识：读指数先问三件事：谁编的、问的是什么、基准年是哪一年。密歇根这个指数把 1966 年设为 100，所以 48.0 不是「48 分」，而是「不到 1966 年的一半」。
Extended note: The Michigan index is scaled so that February 1966 equals 100, so 48.0 is not a score out of 100.
3Purchasing power/ˈpɜːtʃəsɪŋ ˈpaʊə/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

How much your money can buy. When prices rise faster than pay, purchasing power falls.

Why it matters here ▸ Hsu says purchasing power “continues to dominate” how Americans see the economy.

购买力：同样一笔钱能买到多少东西。物价涨得比工资快，购买力就下降。

拓展知识：粗略算法：购买力变化 ≈ 工资涨幅 − 物价涨幅。物价一年涨 5%、工资涨 3%，实际购买力就缩水约 2%——这正是调查里「日子变差」的来源。
Extended note: A rough rule: change in purchasing power ≈ wage growth minus inflation.
4Inflation expectations/ɪnˈfleɪʃn ˌekspekˈteɪʃnz/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

What people think prices will do next. Central banks watch this because beliefs can become behaviour.

Why it matters here ▸ One-year expectations rose to 4.7%; five-year expectations to 3.5%.

通胀预期：人们对未来物价涨幅的判断。央行重视它，因为预期会变成行为。

Expected inflation, %, University of Michigan surveyFed target 2%1 year · Feb3.4%1 year · Oct4.7%5 years · Feb3.2%5 years · Oct3.5%Long-run expectations also drifted up, not back to target.
拓展知识：预期会自我实现：工人按 4.7% 的预期去谈加薪，企业按预期提前涨价，结果通胀真的更高。所以美联储宁可经济慢一点，也要把预期按回 2% 附近。
Extended note: Expectations are a forecast and a cause at the same time.
5Inflation/ɪnˈfleɪʃn/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

A rise in the average price of goods and services. It makes each dollar worth less.

Why it matters here ▸ The Fed wants 2% inflation, a target it has missed for more than five years.

通胀：物价总水平的持续上涨，同样的钱能买到的东西变少。

拓展知识：通胀是加权平均，不是「所有东西一起涨」。食品和油价最容易被感知，所以调查里的「通胀痛感」常常高于官方数字——这也是政策沟通最难的地方。
Extended note: People feel food and fuel prices far more than the average.
6Durable goods/ˈdjʊərəbl ɡʊdz/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

Things that last a long time, such as cars, furniture and appliances. People can delay buying them.

Why it matters here ▸ Buying conditions for durables fell 18% in October, the weakest part of the survey.

耐用品：汽车、家具、家电这类能用很久的东西。因为可以推迟购买，所以对利率最敏感。

拓展知识：耐用品是观察利率传导最好的窗口：利率一高，车贷月供就涨，消费者就把换车往后拖。央行加息，往往先打到汽车和家电的销量上。
Extended note: Durables are where higher rates show up first.
7Interest rate/ˈɪntrəst reɪt/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

The price of borrowing money, shown as a percentage per year. Higher rates make loans cost more.

Why it matters here ▸ About 69% of consumers expect rates to rise further, the most since April 2023.

利率：借钱的价格，按年化百分比表示。利率越高，贷款越贵。

拓展知识：美联储调的是政策利率（现在 3.75%–4.00%），它通过银行传导到车贷、房贷和信用卡。加息对储户是好消息，对借钱买东西的人是坏消息。
Extended note: One policy rate, many consumer rates: car loans, mortgages, credit cards.
8The Fed/ðə fed/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

The central bank of the United States. It sets interest rates to keep inflation low and jobs plentiful.

Why it matters here ▸ It raised rates in September and meets again next week.

美联储（Federal Reserve）：美国中央银行，通过设定利率来管通胀与就业。

拓展知识：美联储有「双重使命」：物价稳定与充分就业。这两件事经常打架——压通胀要加息，保就业要降息，所以它的每次会议都被市场逐字解读。
Extended note: The Fed's two goals often pull in opposite directions.

俚语与短语 · Slang & Phrases

文中出现的口语化表达与固定搭配，共 8 条。默认只给英文解释（练阅读），点标题看中文；每条都能一键加入生词本。
on record/ɒn ˈrekɔːd/

since people started keeping the data; the best or worst ever measured

October's reading was the second-lowest on record.

有记录以来（用于最高级：史上最低、有记录以来第二低）

10 月的读数是有记录以来第二低的。
eat into/ˈiːtɪŋ ˈɪntuː/

to use up part of something, little by little

Higher prices are eating into paychecks.

侵蚀、一点点吃掉（利润、工资、存款）

物价上涨正在侵蚀工资。
tighten their belts/ˈtaɪtnɪŋ ðeə belts/

to spend less because money is short

Many households are tightening their belts.

勒紧裤腰带、缩减开支

很多家庭正在勒紧裤腰带。
make ends meet/meɪk endz miːt/

to have just enough money to pay for basic costs

A rate rise would hit families already struggling to make ends meet.

收支相抵、勉强维持生活

加息会打击本已难以维持收支的家庭。
think twice/θɪŋk twaɪs/

to consider something carefully before deciding to do it

Buyers will think twice about a new car.

三思、再三考虑（通常指因此不做了）

买家在买新车前会三思。
hold rates/həʊld reɪts/

to keep interest rates unchanged at a central bank meeting

Most economists expect the Fed to hold rates next week.

（央行）维持利率不变

多数经济学家预计美联储下周会维持利率不变。
in plain terms/ɪn pleɪn tɜːmz/

said in simple words, without technical language

In plain terms, people feel worse about today than about next year.

说白了、用大白话讲

说白了，人们对今天的感觉比对明年更差。
land/lænd/

(of news, a report or an event) to arrive or be published

The survey lands two weeks before the midterm elections.

（消息、报告）发布、落地、到来

这份调查在中期选举前两周发布。

读后测验 · Check Your Understanding

3 道题。点选项立即判分；解析需要单独点开。
Q1What was the main index reading for October?
正确答案：B
答案是 48.0。原文说 10 月指数从 9 月的 48.1 微降到 48.0，是历史第二低。44.8 是 5 月的历史最低点；46.3 是经济学家预期、也是 10 月初值；50.9 是 9 月的当前状况指数——三个数字都在文中出现过，但答的不是同一个问题。
The Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 48.0 this month from a final reading of 48.1 in September. Three other numbers in the article look similar; only one is the October headline index.
Q2Why did buying conditions for durable goods fall so sharply?
正确答案：C
答案是第三项。原文把原因写成「更高的借贷成本」加上「对可负担性的担忧」——借钱更贵，东西本身也更贵。另外三项原文都没提：没有缺货，没有停止提问，购买量也没有增加。
Those buying conditions plunged 18% during October, reflecting high borrowing costs and growing concerns about affordability. The cause is cost, not supply and not a change in the questionnaire.
Q3What does Joanne Hsu suggest about strong consumer spending?
正确答案：B
答案是第二项。Hsu 写道，如果一部分消费是「为了避开未来涨价而提前购买」，那这种支出反映的是担心而不是信心，反而让降通胀更难。第一项正是她提醒不要做的推断：花得多不等于有信心；第三项与原文相反，2% 目标已经五年多没实现；第四项原文完全没有。
If part of consumption currently reflects precautionary spending to avoid future price hikes, disinflation may be even more difficult to achieve. Spending can be a sign of anxiety, not optimism.
财经外刊精读 · 互动版 · 2026-10-25 · 由 WorkBuddy 自动生成 · 仅供个人英语精读学习使用，版权归原作者与出版方所有
Adapted for B1 readers from Reuters' report on the University of Michigan survey: figures, names and dates are unchanged; sentences were shortened, and only two short direct quotes were kept verbatim. 英文正文：University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, October 2026 final reading (2026-10-23), reported by Reuters。正文按精读节奏切分为 25 段（含标题），保留两句最短的直接引语，其余按 B1 句式改写，事实与数字未变。
转载源与交叉核对：原始数据：密歇根大学消费者调查 2026 年 10 月终值（10 月 23 日发布）——总指数 48.0、当前状况 46.7、预期 48.8、一年期通胀预期 4.7%、五年期 3.5%、耐用品购买条件 −18%、独立派 42.4；主干事实与 Hsu 引语经 Reuters 通稿；交叉核对：Investing.com（终值由初值 46.3 上修至 48.0、分项拆解）、Xinhua（分项与 69% 加息预期）、Finance & Commerce（Hsu 通胀预期报告引文、美联储 3.75%–4.00% 与 9 月加息）。配图：Unsplash 无版权图库素材（非新闻原图），图表按公开数据自绘；本材料不构成任何投资建议。
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