The business of owning companies is easy to enter and, this year, hard to leave.
Photo: Unsplash (stock image, not the original news picture)
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The world's largest private equity firm earned 34% less from selling assets last quarter, yet its fee income rose. When exits stall, the industry's answer is to stop exiting: continuation funds, then forever funds.
Assets under management, a record, up 10% on the year. Fee-related earnings rose 6% to $1.57 billion.
管理资产规模创纪录,同比增长 10%;费用相关收益增长 6%,至 15.7 亿美元。
83%
Fees' share of segment earnings, against 75% a year earlier. Exit profits supplied just 17%, down from 25%.
费用占分部收益的比重,一年前为 75%;退出利润只贡献 17%,低于此前的 25%。
$228.9bn
Dry powder at the end of September — capital raised and waiting. The firm deployed $30.1 billion and realised $33.1 billion in the quarter.
“干火药”规模(9 月底),即已募集待投的资本。本季度投出 301 亿美元、变现 331 亿美元。
$65bn
Manager-led secondary deals in the first half, up 35% and above investor-led sales for the first time in four years; single-asset continuation funds rose 88% to $34 billion.
Blackstonereported third-quarter results on Thursday,and the headline number looked like a miss:distributable earnings fell 13 per cent to $1.32 a share.2It was not.The figure beat the $1.26 analysts had expected, and the shares rose nearly 6 per cent.
A turbulent marketweighed onBlackstone's ability to cash in on its investments.Net realizations4fell 34 per cent to $331.5 million;in private equity they nearly halved, to $194.1 million.
“There was a fair amount of volatility in the quarter and in markets,and that showed up in slowing the IPO market a bit and muted transaction activity as well,”President Jon Graysaid in an interview.
The backdropis not friendly to sellers.Benchmark Treasury yields have hovered near 5 per cent,the war with Iran has kept energy prices and volatility high,and global merger and acquisition activity fell 41 per cent from the previous quarter, according to LSEG.Deals and listings that were ready in June were put on hold.
Yet the machine kept taking money in.Net inflowsreached $63.3 billion,lifting assets under management to a record $1.37 trillion, up 10 per cent from a year earlier.1Fee-related earnings,3the steadier line that comes from managing money rather than selling it, rose 6 per cent to $1.57 billion.
The mix has flipped.Feessupplied 83 per cent of the firm's segment earnings in the quarter,against 75 per cent a year earlier;exits supplied 17 per cent, down from 25.Blackstone is earning more from standing still.
The private equity divisionmade the point sharply.Its fee-related earningsjumped 26 per cent to $619 million,even as its net realizations halved.The firm is paid on the size of the assets it supervises, not on whether those assets ever change hands.
Credit and insurancedid most of the fund-raising,taking in $35.8 billion of the quarter's inflowsand lifting that business to $480 billion of assets,while private equity added $12.6 billion.
Perpetual capital,money with no fixed end date,reached $562.3 billion.Assets in the private wealth channel,sold to individuals through financial advisers,hit a record $330 billion, with almost $9 billion of sales in the quarter.
The money still comes in: $63.3 billion of net inflows lifted assets under management to a record $1.37 trillion.钱还在进来:本季度净流入 633 亿美元,管理资产创下 1.37 万亿美元的纪录。Photo: Unsplash (stock image)
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The retail sidealso shows where the strain is.Redemption requests at BCRED,8Blackstone's flagship non-traded private credit fund,stayed elevated in the quarter,though the firm says the portfolio's fundamentals remain healthy.
The fundheld $41.1 billion of net asset value at the end of September,9and its private credit strategies returned 2.6 per cent gross, or 1.8 per cent net of fees, in the quarter.
Blackstone is still sitting on$228.9 billion of dry powder,5capital it has raised but not yet invested.In the quarter it deployed $30.1 billion and realised $33.1 billion,so money came back to investors slightly faster than it went out.The problem is not the volume of sales but the profit the firm keeps from them: realised performance revenues fell 38 per cent to $464 million.
Two profit lines therefore point in opposite directions.Distributable earnings,the cash measure Blackstone uses to set its dividend,fell 9 per cent to $1.72 billion,while GAAP net income attributable to the company rose to $662.4 million from $624.9 million.The dividend was held at $1.12 a share.
Investors, meanwhile, have already marked the business down.Before Thursday's results,Blackstone's shareshad fallen nearly 30 per cent this year,against a 13 per cent gain for the broader market and about 2 per cent for the S&P 500 financials index.The fear is not a bad quarter; it is that the growth model depends on exits that are not happening.
The AI build-outhas made the question harder.Blackstoneis one of the largest lenders to CoreWeave,the AI cloud company whose shares fell 8.2 per cent on Thursday.
AI 基建热潮让这个问题更难回答。黑石是 CoreWeave 最大的贷款方之一,这家 AI 云公司的股价周四下跌 8.2%。
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Asked about widening credit spreads on AI-related debt,Chief Executive Stephen Schwarzmanturned the problem around.“On the new assets that you haven't yet leased, I think you'll be able to command a higher yield to absorb this,”he told analysts.“You may end up actually in a better spot.”
被问及 AI 相关债务的信用利差走阔时,首席执行官苏世民把问题反过来说了。“对于那些你还没租出去的新资产,我认为你能要求更高的收益率来消化这一点,”他对分析师说。“到头来,你的处境可能反而更好。”
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Managementexpects the logjam to break.Executivestold analysts that net realizations should see a “significant” step-up in the current quarter.Blackstone fundsare among the sellers in Galderma's $1.5 billion agreement to buy ZO Skin Health, a deal expected to close in the fourth quarter or early next year.
管理层预期僵局会打破。高管们告诉分析师,本季度净变现会出现“显著”提升。黑石旗下基金是 Galderma 以 15 亿美元收购 ZO Skin Health 协议的卖方之一,该交易预计在第四季度或明年初完成。
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To see why one slow quarter matters so much, it helps to recall how the machine is built.A private equity firmraises a fund with a fixed life, usually ten years,and calls capital from pension plans, endowments and wealthy families as it finds deals.It buys companies, loads them with debt, improves them, and after five or six years sells them — to a strategic buyer, to another buyout firm, or through an initial public offering.The proceeds go back to the investors, who then commit to the next fund.
Step fiveis the one that pays.Everything before it is a promise;the saleis the only moment when a valuation written on paper becomes cash.When the sale does not happen, the investor does not get paid, the firm does not earn its performance fee, and the next fund is harder to raise.
The evidence is in the cash.European investors at an industry panel this monthsaidannual distributions across their portfolios had dropped to about 6 per cent, from a historical 14 to 20 per cent.Capital returned to investors fell to barely 11 per cent of portfolio value last year, the lowest on record, according to Klarphos, an investment firm.Many limited partners now set a minimum distribution target of 20 per cent of committed capital.
Fundraising has held up better than exits.US private equity fundraisingis on pace to finish 2026 below $300 billion, the first time since 2020, according to PitchBook.Deal value fell 13.6 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier and exit value fell 14.1 per cent,even after a rebound led by sales to strategic buyers.
Side doors: continuation funds, CV-squared, forever funds — each one moves the asset to a new vehicle, not a new owner.侧门:续存基金、CV 平方、永久基金——每一扇都让资产换个载体,而不是换个主人。Photo: Unsplash (stock image)
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The industry has not waited for the door to open.It has built side doors.The busiestis the continuation fund:7the manager sells an asset from an expiring fund to a new vehicle it also controls, and the new vehicle's investors — often the same ones — put in fresh money.
In the first half of 2026, manager-led secondary dealsreached $65 billion, up 35 per cent,overtaking investor-led sales for the first time in four years, according to Evercore.Single-asset continuation funds alonerose 88 per cent to $34 billion;the whole secondary market ran to $121 billion, a record for a first half.
Some assetshave now been rolled twice, from one continuation vehicle into another— a structure the industry calls “CV-squared.”The next stepis to stop exiting altogether.
Chart 2 | From a jammed exit to a fund with no end dateSources: Evercore (H1 2026 secondary review); Bloomberg (Oct 19, 2026); Reuters (Oct 22, 2026).
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Wall Streetis now pitching that step.Goldman Sachs, Evercore, Jefferies, Raymond James and Lazardare sounding out investors on “evergreen continuation vehicles”— forever funds that would hold a company for 10 to 15 years, rather than the five-year term of a standard continuation fund, with no fixed end date at all.
华尔街现在正在推销这一步。高盛、Evercore、杰富瑞、Raymond James 和 Lazard 正在向投资者试探“常青续存基金”——这种“永久基金”会把一家公司持有 10 到 15 年,而不是标准续存基金的五年期,且完全没有固定到期日。
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“These vehicles will have more unfunded capital to support the growth of the asset, and there is no pressure to exit,”Sunaina Sinha Haldea, Raymond James's global head of private capital advisory,told Bloomberg.Investors who want outwould be paid from the portfolio companies' own cash flow, from periodic secondary tenders, or from money committed by new investors— arrangements still being negotiated.
“这类工具会有更多尚未投出的承诺资本来支持资产成长,而且没有退出压力,”Raymond James 全球私募资本顾问负责人苏奈娜·辛哈·哈尔迪亚对彭博表示。想退出的投资者将从被投企业自身的现金流、定期的二手要约,或新投资者承诺的资金中获得兑付——这些安排仍在谈判中。
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The catchis in the fees.A longer holdmeans more years of management fees on the same asset,and it raises awkward questions about carried interest — the share of profits, usually 20 per cent, that a manager keeps.6To calculate it, you need a sale price.
If the asset is never sold, that number comes from a valuation model, and the model is written by the manager.Critics, including former Federal Reserve official Chris Whalen,arguethat a sale is the only real test of a price, and that assets held without an end date are hard for pension funds to value honestly.Limited partners are already pushing back on fees for assets held past their expected horizon.
The marks are written by the manager: without a sale price, carry and NAV stay inside the model.估值由管理人自己写:没有卖出价,附带权益与净值都只能停在模型里。Photo: Unsplash (stock image)
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None of this means the industry is in crisis.Blackstone raised more money than it returned, its fee base is growing, and its credit business is expanding into insurance and infrastructure.But the model has changed shape.Private equitysold investors an illiquidity premium:you give up the ability to sell for years, and you are paid for it.
When the selling stops, that premium stops being a promise about returns and becomes a question about marks.The exit dooris not jammed by a bad quarter.It is jammed because assets bought at 2021 prices cannot easily be sold at 2026 rates— and the industry's answer, so far, has been to stop selling.
The profit a manager makes from management and advisory fees, before any gain from selling investments. It is the steady, recurring part of the business.
Why it matters here ▸ It rose 6 per cent to $1.57 billion and supplied 83 per cent of segment earnings, up from 75 per cent.
Extended note: FRE ≈ fee-earning assets × fee rate − costs. It is the part of the model that does not need a sale to happen.
4net realizations/net ˌriːəlaɪˈzeɪʃnz/点击看中文解释 ↓
The profit a firm actually books when it sells an investment, after investors' capital has been returned. It is the cash proof of a private equity return.
Why it matters here ▸ Down 34 per cent to $331.5 million; in private equity it nearly halved, to $194.1 million.
Extended note: Carry is meant to align incentives. Without an exit price, that alignment rests on the manager's own valuation.
7continuation fund/kənˌtɪnjuˈeɪʃn fʌnd/点击看中文解释 ↓
A new fund set up by the same manager to buy an asset from one of its expiring funds, giving existing investors cash and the manager more time to hold it.
Why it matters here ▸ Manager-led secondaries hit $65 billion in the first half, up 35 per cent, overtaking investor-led sales for the first time in four years.
To profit from a situation, especially by converting an asset or an advantage into money.
A turbulent market weighed on Blackstone's ability to cash in on its investments.
从……中套现、借……获利(把资产或优势变成现金)。
动荡的市场拖累了黑石把投资变现的能力。
weigh on/weɪ ɒn/
To press down on something; to make it weaker or slower.
Higher bond yields and a closed IPO window weighed on the firm's exit profits.
压低、拖累(使某事物变弱或变慢)。
更高的债券收益率与关上的 IPO 窗口,拖累了公司的退出利润。
put on hold/pʊt ɒn həʊld/
To stop something from continuing for a period, usually until conditions improve.
Deals and listings that were ready in June were put on hold.
搁置、暂缓(通常等条件好转再继续)。
6 月就准备就绪的交易和上市,被搁置了。
step-up/ˈstep ʌp/
A clear increase in amount, level or intensity.
Executives said net realizations should see a "significant" step-up in the current quarter.
(数量、水平上的)明显提升、上调。
高管称本季度净变现会出现「显著」提升。
sit on/sɪt ɒn/
To hold something and not use or sell it yet.
Blackstone is still sitting on $228.9 billion of dry powder.
压着、攥着(持有但暂不使用或出售)。
黑石手上仍压着 2,289 亿美元的「干火药」。
roll into/rəʊl ˈɪntuː/
To move an asset or a balance from one vehicle or period into another, usually to extend it.
Some assets have now been rolled twice, from one continuation vehicle into another.
滚入、转入(把资产或余额从一只载体/一个周期转到另一个,通常为了延期)。
有些资产如今已被滚了两轮,从一只续存基金转进另一只。
on paper/ɒn ˈpeɪpə/
In theory, or in the accounts, rather than in actual cash.
The sale is the only moment when a valuation written on paper becomes cash.
账面上、理论上(而非真实现金)。
卖出,是账面估值变成现金的唯一时刻。
mark down/mɑːk daʊn/
To reduce the estimated or recorded value of something.
Investors have already marked the business down: the shares are off nearly 30 per cent this year.
下调(估值、价格或评级)。
投资者早已把这项生意重新定价:股价今年跌了近 30%。
hold up/həʊld ʌp/
To remain strong or continue at a good level despite pressure.
Fundraising has held up better than exits, but the money is piling up undeployed.
(在压力下)依然撑住、保持得住。
募资比退出撑得住一些,但钱正越堆越多、投不出去。
读后测验 · Check Your Understanding
3 道题。点选项立即判分;解析需要单独点开。
Q1What happened to Blackstone's distributable earnings in the third quarter?
正确答案:B
第一段给的就是这个口径:可分配收益下降 13% 至每股 1.32 美元,但高于分析师预期的 1.26 美元。A 说的是费用相关收益(15.72 亿美元、+6%);C 说的是净变现(3.315 亿美元、−34%);D 把每股股息 1.12 美元当成了收益。三个干扰项都来自同一份财报里的其他数字,考的是能否分清三条线。 "Distributable earnings fell 13 per cent to $1.32 a share. ... The figure beat the $1.26 analysts had expected."A is fee-related earnings; C is net realizations; D is the dividend. The question tests whether you can keep three earnings lines apart.
Q2Why can fee-related earnings rise while net realizations fall?
正确答案:A
费用按「管理资产规模 × 费率」收取,与有没有卖出无关;所以退出停摆、变现腰斩,费用照样增长——私募股权部门的费用相关收益甚至涨了 26% 至 6.19 亿美元。B 与事实相反(本季变现 331 亿、投入 301 亿,且净变现下降);C 说反了,账面浮盈不进可分配收益;D 是背景,不是机制。 "The firm is paid on the size of the assets it supervises, not on whether those assets ever change hands."B reverses the numbers; C confuses mark-ups with cash; D describes the backdrop, not the mechanism.
Q3What is the deeper problem the article identifies with "forever funds"?
正确答案:C
文章最后三段的落点:更长的持有期意味着同一笔资产多收几年管理费,而附带权益需要一个卖出价才能计算;资产永不卖出,这个数字就只能来自管理人自己写的估值模型。批评者(惠伦)因此说,卖出是检验价格的唯一真实方式。A 与「10 到 15 年」相反;B 恰好相反——永久基金的目的就是避免卖出;D 文中完全没有。 "To calculate it, you need a sale price. ... If the asset is never sold, that number comes from a valuation model, and the model is written by the manager."A contradicts the 10-15 year term; B is the opposite of the structure's purpose; D is invented. The real issue is price discovery, not legality.