财经外刊精读 · 互动版 · 2026-10-01 ｜美光创纪录的一季：AI 正在挤占全球内存供应

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Micron reported a record $54.23 billion in quarterly revenue, nearly four times last year's figure, and guided even higher for the current quarter. The AI boom that made it rich is also starving ordinary devices of memory.

美光公布创纪录的 542.3 亿美元 单季营收，几乎是去年同期的四倍，并对本财季给出了更高的指引。让它赚到这笔钱的 AI 热潮，同时也让普通设备的存储供应挨饿。

$54.23B

Micron's quarterly revenue — fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, up 379 per cent from $11.32 billion a year earlier and above the $51.07 billion consensus compiled by LSEG.

美光单季营收 —— 2026 财年第四财季，同比增长 379%，去年同期为 113.2 亿美元，高于 LSEG 汇编的 510.7 亿美元一致预期。

+11×

Data centre revenue — $18 billion in the quarter, against $1.577 billion a year earlier, as AI servers absorbed almost every chip Micron could make.

数据中心营收 —— 本季 180 亿美元，去年同期 15.77 亿美元；AI 服务器几乎吃掉了美光能造出的每一颗芯片。

$61.5B

Guidance for the next quarter — revenue, with adjusted earnings per share of $38.15. Both beat estimates of $57 billion and $35.40.

下财季指引 —— 营收 615 亿美元、调整后每股收益 38.15 美元，均高于 570 亿美元和 35.40 美元的预期。

121%

TrendForce's 2027 price forecast — the blended average selling price of HBM is now expected to rise 121 per cent year on year.

集邦咨询的 2027 年价格预测 —— HBM 混合平均售价预计同比上涨 121%。

5.4×

The spot price of a 32GB DDR5 server module — $2,050 in the second week of September, against about $380 in November 2025.

32GB DDR5 服务器内存条的现货价 —— 9 月第二周达 2050 美元，而 2025 年 11 月约 380 美元。

$250B

Micron's planned U.S. investment — more than $250 billion through 2035. Even so, a new plant takes years before it produces a single wafer.

美光在美国的投资计划 —— 到 2035 年超过 2500 亿美元。但即便如此，一座新厂也要数年才能产出第一片晶圆。

原文精读 · Full Text

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主语 Subject 谓语 / 动词 Verb 宾语 · 表语 Object 从句 · 非谓语 Clause 状语 Adverbial 插入语 · 引述 Attribution

TITLE

Micron's record quarter shows how AI is squeezing the world's memory supply

美光这一季的创纪录业绩，说明AI 正在挤占全球的内存供应

PARA 01

Micron Technology reported on Sept 30 that revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended on Sept 3, reached a record $54.23 billion, nearly four times the $11.32 billion it booked a year earlier, and comfortably above the $51.07 billion that analysts had expected.

美光科技9 月 30 日公布：截至 9 月 3 日的 2026 财年第四财季，营收达到创纪录的 542.3 亿美元，几乎是去年同期 113.2 亿美元的四倍，并明显高于分析师预期的 510.7 亿美元。

PARA 02

Adjusted earnings per share came in at $33.42, beating the $31.61 consensus, and full-year revenue for fiscal 2026 jumped 256 per cent to $133.19 billion from $37.38 billion.

调整后每股收益为33.42 美元，高于 31.61 美元的一致预期；而 2026 财年全年营收从 373.8 亿美元大增 256% 至 1331.9 亿美元。

PARA 03

Guidance for the current quarter7 pointed to $61.5 billion in revenue and $38.15 in adjusted earnings per share, well above Wall Street estimates of $57 billion and $35.40.

对本财季的指引是——营收 615 亿美元、调整后每股收益 38.15 美元，远高于华尔街预期的 570 亿美元和 35.40 美元。

PARA 04

The core data centre business drove the record quarter, with $18 billion in revenue, more than an eleven-fold jump from $1.577 billion a year earlier.

核心数据中心业务撑起了这个创纪录的季度，收入 180 亿美元，比去年同期的 15.77 亿美元增长了十倍以上。

PARA 05

Cloud memory brought in $16.28 billion, mobile and client $13.11 billion, and automotive and embedded $6.82 billion, and DRAM revenue alone rose 343 per cent to $39.8 billion, or 73 per cent of the total.

云端内存业务收入162.8 亿美元，移动与客户端 131.1 亿美元，汽车与嵌入式 68.2 亿美元，而仅 DRAM 一项营收就增长 343% 至 398 亿美元，占总营收的 73%。

Chart 1 | Micron's core data centre business brought in $18 billion in the quarter, more than eleven times the year-earlier figure.Basis: Micron's Q4 FY2026 segment revenue (ended 3 Sep, a 14-week quarter), in US$ hundreds of millions. The four segments total $54.23bn, matching reported revenue. Source: Micron's official earnings release.

PARA 06

HBM1 crowds out ordinary DRAM.2

HBM正在挤占普通 DRAM 的产能。

PARA 07

High bandwidth memory, or HBM, is built by stacking layers of ordinary DRAM dies into one tall package, so that a processor can read far more data far faster, and AI data centres will pay almost any price for it.

高带宽内存（HBM）是把多层普通 DRAM 芯片垂直堆叠成的「高楼」，好让处理器能更快读取更多数据，而 AI 数据中心愿意为它付出几乎任何价钱。

Photo: a printed circuit board up close. Making memory means printing hundreds of layers onto round silicon wafers, then stacking and packaging them — the part of the chain that cannot be expanded overnight. 图：一块印刷电路板的近景。造内存要在圆形硅片上印数百层电路，再堆叠、封装——这是产业链上最不可能一夜之间扩产的一环。 Unsplash royalty-free stock photo, not the original article's artwork; for illustration only.

PARA 08

HBM consumes roughly three times the wafer area of conventional DRAM, so every wafer switched over removes far more ordinary memory than the headline share suggests.

HBM要吃掉约为普通 DRAM 三倍的晶圆面积，所以每挪走一片晶圆，损失的普通内存产量都远超表面比例。

PARA 09

Kim Taewoo, an executive vice president at Samsung Electronics, said HBM is expected to take nearly 30 per cent of the memory industry's wafer capacity next year,3 up from around 20 per cent now.

三星电子执行副总裁金泰宇表示，预计明年 HBM 将占全球内存行业晶圆产能的近 30%，高于目前约 20% 的水平。

PARA 10

TrendForce, a market research firm, expects memory supply to stay tight through 2027, and has raised its 2027 blended average selling price forecast for HBM to a 121 per cent year-on-year jump.4

市场研究机构集邦咨询预计内存供应到 2027 年都会持续偏紧，并把 2027 年 HBM 的混合平均售价预测上调至同比上涨 121%。

Photo: a data hall full of server racks. AI data centres take delivery of HBM first; whatever memory is left over goes to phones and laptops. 图：摆满服务器机柜的数据中心机房。AI 数据中心先拿到 HBM，剩下的内存才轮到手机和笔记本。 Unsplash royalty-free stock photo, not the original article's artwork; for illustration only.

PARA 11

GPU and ASIC makers are now discussing cutting the amount of HBM they put into each accelerator, because supply is limited and system costs are rising fast.

GPU 与 ASIC 厂商正在讨论削减每颗加速器里搭载的 HBM 容量，因为供应有限、系统成本快速上升。

PARA 12

An eight-layer stack uses fewer DRAM dies than a twelve-layer one, but each stack still needs one base die, so its cost per gigabit is actually higher. TrendForce puts the premium at 10 to 20 per cent per gigabit in 2027.

八层堆叠比十二层用的DRAM 芯片更少，但每颗堆叠都还需要一颗基底芯片，所以摊到每 Gb 的成本反而更高。集邦咨询预计，2027 年这个溢价约为每 Gb 10% 到 20%。

PARA 13

The bill is landing on ordinary devices.

这笔账正在落到普通设备头上。

PARA 14

The spot price of a 32GB DDR5 server module8 broke through $2,000 in the second week of September, up from about $380 in November 2025 — a fivefold rise in ten months.

32GB DDR5 服务器内存条的现货价突破 2000 美元（9 月第二周），而 2025 年 11 月只要约 380 美元 ——十个月涨了五倍多。

Chart 2 | The spot price of a 32GB DDR5 server module rose from about $380 to $2,050 in ten months — a 5.4-fold increase.Basis: DRAMeXchange spot averages. September 2026 uses week two ($2,050 average, $2,380 high, $1,950 low); June and July are representative monthly quotes, not weekly series. Source: DRAMeXchange / TrendForce, cited by BigGo Finance and Securities Times.

PARA 15

Memory now takes more than 45 per cent of the bill of materials in a mass-market phone,5 up from below 20 per cent before the shortage, which is why Huawei, Xiaomi and Honor have all raised prices by as much as 1,000 yuan this autumn.

内存现在占一台中低端手机物料清单的四成五以上，而缺货前还不到两成，所以华为、小米和荣耀今年秋天都把价格上调了最多 1000 元。

Photo: a smartphone. In many handsets memory is now the single most expensive component, ahead of the processor. 图：一部手机。如今在不少机型里，内存已经超过处理器，成为最贵的单一元器件。 Unsplash royalty-free stock photo, not the original article's artwork; for illustration only.

PARA 16

Samsung has been renegotiating DRAM and NAND prices with phone makers including Apple, with the new rates reportedly taking effect in the first quarter of 2027 at roughly a third more for mobile DRAM.

三星一直在与包括苹果在内的手机厂商重新谈判 DRAM 与 NAND 的价格，新价格据报 2027 年第一季度生效，移动 DRAM 涨幅约三分之一。

PARA 17

New factories cannot be switched on quickly.

新工厂没法说开就开。

PARA 18

Micron has raised its planned investment in the United States to more than $250 billion through 2035, but the first new plant, in Boise, Idaho, will only start operating next year, and its largest site, in Clay, New York, will take far longer.

美光已把到 2035 年在美国的投资计划提高到 2500 亿美元以上，但爱达荷州博伊西的第一座新厂明年才开始运营，而位于纽约州克莱的最大厂区还要更久。

PARA 19

Kwak Noh-jung, chief executive of SK Hynix, has warned that the industry faces its worst shortage in 2027, with customer demand expected to stay above his company's capacity beyond 2030.

SK 海力士首席执行官郭鲁正警告说，行业将在 2027 年迎来最严重的一次短缺，客户需求预计到 2030 年以后仍会超过公司产能。

PARA 20

Some high-capacity server modules now carry a lead time of 52 weeks,9 which means buyers have to order a year ahead to secure supply.

部分高容量服务器内存条的交货周期已经长达 52 周，这意味着买家必须提前一年下单才能锁定货源。

PARA 21

Micron's adjusted gross margin6 reached 87 per cent, above the 86.2 per cent analysts had forecast, and the company guided to 86.3 per cent for the current quarter, below the 86.7 per cent consensus.

美光本财季调整后毛利率达到87%，高于分析师预期的 86.2%；而公司对本财季的指引是 86.3%，低于 86.7% 的一致预期。

PARA 22

Micron's shares were little changed in regular trading on Sept 30, after rising about 1.6 per cent in after-hours trade following the release, and the stock is up more than 500 per cent over the past year.

美光股价在 9 月 30 日常规交易时段变化不大，财报发布后的盘后交易一度上涨约 1.6%，而过去一年累计涨幅超过 500%。

PARA 23

"Micron's results and guidance completely blew past expectations," said Bob O'Donnell, chief analyst at TECHnalysis Research, adding that the numbers should end the debate over whether AI infrastructure spending can last.

「美光的业绩和指引全面超出预期，」TECHnalysis Research 首席分析师鲍勃·奥唐奈说，并称这些数字应当终结关于 AI 基建投入能否持续的争论。

PARA 24

Micron says that strategic customer agreements, under which buyers reserve volumes in advance, give it confidence that fiscal 2027 will be stronger still. For anyone who needs a new phone or laptop before then, that confidence comes at a price.

美光表示，让客户提前锁定采购量的「战略客户协议」让它相信 2027 财年会更强。而对那之前想换手机或电脑的人来说，这份信心是有代价的。

核心术语 · Glossary

编号与正文上标一一对应，点正文里的数字可跳到对应卡片。默认只显示英文解释（练阅读）；想看中文，点卡片标题。

1HBM (high bandwidth memory)/ˌeɪtʃ biː ˈem/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

A type of memory made by stacking many layers of ordinary memory chips into one tall package, so data can move much faster. It sits right next to the AI processor and feeds it.

Why it matters here ▸ It is the product that made Micron's quarter, and it competes with ordinary DRAM for the same factory capacity.

高带宽内存。把多层普通 DRAM 芯片垂直堆叠成一颗「高楼」，让数据进出速度提高数倍，专门供 AI 处理器使用。

拓展知识：HBM 每升级一代（HBM3E → HBM4），制造工序更复杂、占用的晶圆面积更大，所以单价也更高。美光的 HBM4 是 36GB、12 层堆叠的产品，供货给英伟达的下一代加速器。

Extended note: HBM is the opposite of ordinary RAM: it is sold in small quantities at very high prices, and buyers will sign multi-year contracts to secure supply. That is why HBM is now the profit engine of the whole memory industry.

2DRAM/ˈdiːræm/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

The standard memory chip that holds the data your computer or phone is using right now. It loses everything when the power goes off, which is why it is called volatile memory.

Why it matters here ▸ HBM is made from DRAM dies, so HBM and DRAM are not two markets — they are the same production line.

动态随机存取存储器，也就是电脑／手机里的「内存」。断电即失，所以叫易失性存储。

拓展知识：与 DRAM 相对的是 NAND 闪存（手机里的「存储空间」），断电不丢数据。两者常被合称「存储芯片」。本篇讲的涨价主要发生在 DRAM 一侧，NAND 本季也有约 30% 的环比涨幅。

Extended note: DRAM is a commodity: buyers pay whatever the market asks, because almost nothing else can be substituted for it. That is exactly why a shortage can lift prices several times over in under a year.

3Wafer capacity/ˈweɪfər kəˈpæsəti/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

A wafer is the round silicon disc that chips are printed on. Wafer capacity is how many of those discs a factory can process — the limit that decides how many chips the world gets.

Why it matters here ▸ Samsung expects HBM alone to take nearly 30 per cent of the industry's wafer capacity next year, up from about 20 per cent now.

晶圆是印芯片用的圆形硅片；晶圆产能就是工厂每月能处理多少片。它决定了全世界能拿到多少芯片。

拓展知识：内存厂要扩产，必须先建洁净室、装设备、培训人员，再等良率爬升，通常要 3 到 5 年。所以需求一下子涨上来时，供给是动弹不得的——这正是这轮涨价的根本原因。

Extended note: Because DRAM and HBM share the same production lines, every wafer switched to HBM is a wafer taken away from ordinary DRAM. The shortage is not an accident; it is a direct consequence of chasing the most profitable product.

4Blended ASP (average selling price)/ˈblendɪd ˌeɪ es ˈpiː/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

The average price of everything a company sells, weighted by how much of each product it ships. It rises even when list prices do not, simply because a dearer product takes a bigger share.

Why it matters here ▸ TrendForce's 121 per cent figure is a blended ASP figure: part price rise, part a richer product mix.

把公司卖出的所有产品按销量加权后算出的平均售价。就算单价不变，只要贵的产品卖得多，混合均价也会上升。

拓展知识：集邦咨询把 2027 年 HBM 混合均价预测上调到同比 +121%，原因有两个：一是涨价本身，二是更贵的 HBM4 在出货中的占比从约 40% 升到约 80%——「结构变化」贡献了相当一部分涨幅。

Extended note: This is why analysts watch product mix as closely as list prices. A memory maker can report a big jump in average prices without ever announcing a price increase.

5Bill of materials (BOM)/bɪl əv məˈtɪəriəlz/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

The itemised list of every part inside a product, and what each one costs to buy. It is where a component shortage turns into a retail price rise.

Why it matters here ▸ Memory now takes more than 45 per cent of the bill of materials in a mass-market phone, up from below 20 per cent before the shortage.

产品里每个零件的清单及其采购成本。元器件涨价，最后就是通过 BOM 传导到零售价上。

拓展知识：以一台中低端手机为例，内存（运行内存 + 存储）在 BOM 中的占比从不到 20% 升到 45% 以上；一台去年含 30 美元内存的笔记本，今年可能含 150 美元。整机厂要么涨价、要么砍配置。

Extended note: BOM inflation is hard to hide: a phone maker must raise the price, cut memory capacity, or accept a thinner margin. Most have chosen to raise prices.

6Gross margin/ɡrəʊs ˈmɑːdʒɪn/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

The share of revenue left after subtracting the direct cost of making the product. A gross margin of 87 per cent leaves 87 cents of every sales dollar before other costs.

Why it matters here ▸ Micron's adjusted gross margin reached 87 per cent, but it guided to 86.3 per cent for the current quarter — below what analysts expected.

营收减掉直接生产成本后剩下的比例。毛利率 87%，意味着每卖 1 美元，扣掉直接制造成本后还剩 87 美分。

拓展知识：毛利率大幅跳升通常来自两件事：售价涨、成本没涨。美光第四财季 GAAP 毛利率从去年同期的 44.7% 升到 86.8%，主要就是内存涨价带来的。反过来，公司一旦说毛利率会回落，市场就会紧张。

Extended note: Gross margin is the first place a shortage shows up in a company's accounts. It is also the first thing that will fall when prices normalise, which is why guidance matters so much.

7Guidance/ˈɡaɪdəns/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

A company's own forecast of the next quarter's revenue and profit, given to investors in advance. Markets often trade on it more than on the quarter just reported.

Why it matters here ▸ Micron guided to $61.5 billion of revenue in the current quarter, above the $57 billion analysts had pencilled in.

公司主动给出的下一财季营收与利润预测。市场对它的反应，往往比对上季度实际业绩更大。

拓展知识：美光给出 2027 财年第一财季营收 615 亿美元、调整后每股收益 38.15 美元，均高于华尔街预期。但同时提示毛利率会从 87% 回落到 86.3%——这就是为什么「业绩超预期」当天股价反而收平。

Extended note: Guidance is where a memory cycle is either confirmed or doubted. Past memory booms ended when guidance stopped rising, which is why investors watch this number so closely.

8Spot price vs contract price/spɒt praɪs/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

A contract price is locked in with a supplier for months at a time. A spot price is what you pay today for whatever is left over. In a shortage, spot prices run far above contract prices.

Why it matters here ▸ The 32GB DDR5 module in this article is quoted on the spot market, which is why the number is so extreme.

合约价是提前几个月和供应商锁定的价格；现货价是今天临时到市场上买的价格。缺货时，现货价会远远高于合约价。

拓展知识：三星据报已把 2031 年前约 70% 的 HBM 产能分配给长约订单，现货价因此涨到长约价的 4 到 5 倍。理解了「长约 / 现货」两条价格，就能明白为什么同一种内存条在不同渠道的报价能差这么多。

Extended note: Spot prices are the market's panic gauge. They overshoot in both directions, so a rising spot price tells you how tight supply is right now, not where prices will settle.

9Lead time/liːd taɪm/ 点击看中文解释 ↓

How long you must wait between placing an order and receiving the goods. A 52-week lead time means ordering a year ahead.

Why it matters here ▸ Some high-capacity server modules now carry a 52-week lead time, against the 8 to 12 weeks that used to be normal.

从下单到收货要等多久。52 周的交货周期，意味着现在下单要等整整一年。

拓展知识：交货周期是供应链最直观的体温计：正常时期服务器内存条大约 8 到 12 周，现在部分高容量型号要 52 周。周期拉长的下一步通常是「重复下单」（客户为保险下两份单），反过来又会把短缺放大。

Extended note: When lead times stretch, buyers order more than they need, and the shortage becomes self-reinforcing. That is how a supply squeeze turns into a double-ordering bubble.

读后测验 · Check Your Understanding

3 道题。点选项立即判分；解析需要单独点开。

Q1What did Micron report for its fiscal fourth quarter?

正确答案：A
正确答案是 A。美光第四财季营收 542.3 亿美元，几乎是去年同期 113.2 亿美元的四倍，也高于 LSEG 一致预期的 510.7 亿美元。B 项把同比的两端搞反了；C 项的 414.6 亿美元是上一财季（第三财季）的营收，不是本季；D 项的 1331.9 亿美元是 2026 财年全年营收，也不是单季。
"Fourth-quarter revenue reached a record $54.23 billion, nearly a fourfold surge from $11.32 billion a year earlier." B reverses the comparison, C is the prior quarter's revenue, and D is the full-year total, not one quarter.

Q2Why does making more HBM leave less memory for phones and laptops?

正确答案：C
正确答案是 C。TrendForce 指出，HBM 与传统 DRAM 在争夺有限的先进制程与晶圆产能；而 HBM 占用的晶圆面积约为普通 DRAM 的三倍，所以产能向 HBM 倾斜时，普通内存产量的下降幅度比表面比例更大。A 项与地理位置无关；B 项把因果弄反了——长约是缺货的结果，不是原因；D 项全文没有提到任何出口限制。
"HBM and conventional DRAM are in competition for limited advanced-process and wafer capacity." Geography, contracts and export caps are not the mechanism; shared production lines and wafer consumption are.

Q3What does the article suggest about how long the shortage will last?

正确答案：B
正确答案是 B。SK 海力士首席执行官郭鲁正警告，2027 年将是行业最严重的一次短缺，客户需求预计到 2030 年以后仍会超过公司产能；美光虽计划到 2035 年在美国投资 2500 亿美元以上，但博伊西新厂明年才投产、纽约厂区还要更久，产能不是说开就开。A、C 两项都把建厂速度想得太快；D 项与文中「内存已占中低端手机物料清单四成五以上、厂商被迫涨价」直接矛盾。
"Customer demand is expected to stay above his company's capacity beyond 2030." A and C assume fabs can be switched on in months, while D contradicts the price rises already seen in phones.

财经外刊精读 · 互动版 Micron's record quarter shows how AI is squeezing the world's memory supply

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