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Oil Prices Fall as U.S.-Iran Diplomacy, Regional Tensions Remain in Focus · WSJ / Dow Jones Newswires
2026 年 9 月 26 日 · 星期六本期：能源 · 地缘政治 · 大宗商品定价
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Oil fell 2.1% Friday to $104.32 a barrel after Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. Yet Brent still trades $12.68 above U.S. crude — the widest gap since May — because the physical market stays tight.
Oil PricesFallas U.S.-Iran Diplomacy, Regional Tensions Remain in Focus
油价下跌——美伊外交与地区紧张局势同时成为焦点
PARA 01
Oil pricesfell Fridayas investors assessed prospects for U.S.-Iran diplomacy aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuzwhile keeping a measure of cautiongiven continued Houthi threats to Saudi energy infrastructure.
Front-month Brent crude for November delivery2fell 2.1% to $104.32 a barrel, and ended the week up 0.4%.West Texas Intermediate crude for November1settled down 2.3% at $92.41 a barrelfor a 3.8% weekly loss.
Chart 1 | One commodity, two prices — the gap traders are watchingData: Dow Jones Newswires (25 Sep 2026 settlement). The wider spread tracks reports of a possible US diesel-export ban, see Reuters the same day. Bar length is the price level; weekly moves are labelled separately (red up, green down).
PARA 03
The marketwas cautiousahead of the weekendamid reports that Iran had submitted proposals to the U.S. to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days,under conditions that include the lifting of the U.S. Navy blockade3which has kept Iranian oil shut in.
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas. Iran says it could reopen the waterway within seven days if the U.S. naval blockade is lifted.霍尔木兹海峡承担全球约五分之一的石油与天然气运输。伊朗称，只要美国解除海军封锁，海峡可在七天内重新开放。Unsplash 无版权图库素材（集装箱码头示意，非霍尔木兹海峡实景）；运量占比据 Reuters 2026-09-25 报道。
PARA 04
“What are the chances of that? Slim to none basically,”said Robert Yawger, commodity specialist at Mizuho Securities USA.“We’ve heard this story at least four times before, it never panned out.”
Diplomatic headlinesshould be treated cautiouslyuntil there is a concrete step toward de-escalation,such as an easing of the U.S. blockade or an actual resumption of oil transits,said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude analysis at data and analytics firm Kpler.
Fresh efforts to revive negotiationsare facing hurdles.Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emiratesare urgingWashington to maintain economic pressure on Iran and avoid concessions that would ease sanctions or the U.S. naval blockade,4The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.
Mediators including Qatarare pressing fora fresh round of talks in Oman, as soon as next week,aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and beginning to wind down the war,the Journal reported.
Near-term oil-market fundamentals5remain tightdespite efforts to restore regional supply routes,the National Bank of Kuwait said in an oil-market report Thursday.
Brent’s front-month spreadremains around $4 to $5 a barrel,significantly above levels of less than $1 in February,reflecting tight prompt supplies,6the bank said.
Without a near-term agreement to fully reopen the strait,fundamentalsare likely to remain tight,NBK said.
如果短期内不能达成全面重开海峡的协议，基本面很可能会继续偏紧，科威特国民银行说。
PARA 11
The International Energy Agencysaidglobal observed oil inventories have fallen by 507 million barrels since the conflict began,7equivalent to an average draw of 2.8 million barrels a day.
Stocksfell by a further 95 million barrelsin August alone,leaving smaller buffers against additional supply disruptions.
库存又减少 9,500 万桶——仅 8 月这一个月，这使得应对进一步供应中断的缓冲变得更薄。
PARA 13
U.S. commercial crude inventories,however,rose by nearly 3 million barrelsin the week ended Sept. 18 to 426.4 million barrels,according to the Energy Information Administration.
The U.S.is likely to seemore crude inventory builds, as well as product draws,in coming weeksas refineries go into maintenance,Mizuho’s Yawger said.
美国接下来可能会看到更多原油累库、以及成品油去库，在未来几周因为炼厂进入检修期，瑞穗的亚格说。
PARA 15
“If you take a good million barrels off the refinery utilization rate,8those million barrels a dayare going to get stuffedinto storage.”
“如果你把炼厂开工率砍掉整整 100 万桶／日，这 100 万桶／日就会被塞进库存里。”
Refineries going into seasonal maintenance cut their crude intake — and that crude has nowhere to go but into storage.炼厂进入季节性检修后，原油进料减少——这些原油无处可去，只能进库存。Unsplash 无版权图库素材（炼油厂示意，非文中提及的具体炼厂）。
PARA 16
Attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on Saudi oil facilitieskeepthe oil marketwary of selloffs.
也门胡塞武装对沙特石油设施的袭击让石油市场不敢轻易看跌。
PARA 17
Franceplans to sendsoldiers, radar and defense systemsto Saudi Arabia to help protect a refinery and crude-oil pipeline at the Red Sea port of Yanbu,French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday.
Francehad agreed with Saudi authorities on the deployment,he said,adding that France wasn’t entering the conflict.
法国已就此次部署与沙特当局达成一致，他说，并补充说法国并未加入这场冲突。
PARA 19
Yanbuhas becomea key outlet for Saudi crudeas the kingdom uses its East-West pipeline to bypass disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
延布已经成为沙特原油的关键出口通道，因为沙特正用东西向输油管道绕开霍尔木兹海峡周边的中断。
PARA 20
The route through the Red Seahas taken on greater importanceas attacks and threats to shipping have complicated the movement of Middle Eastern oil.
红海这条路线变得更加重要，因为针对航运的袭击与威胁让中东石油的运输变得复杂。
PARA 21
Alternative Gulf export routeshave already helped offsetsome of the disruption.
海湾地区的替代出口路线已经帮助抵消了部分供应中断的影响。
PARA 22
Combined oil exports through Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu and the United Arab Emirates’ Fujairah,which is located on the eastern coast of U.A.E. and allows exports to avoid Hormuz,rose to 7.8 million barrels a day in June from 4.1 million before the conflict,before falling to 5.5 million barrels a day in August as attacks disrupted bypass routes,according to the IEA.
Chart 2 | The bypass routes that kept Saudi barrels movingData: IEA, cited by Dow Jones Newswires. Covers combined crude exports from Yanbu on the Red Sea and Fujairah in the UAE; 'before the conflict' means before the current round of fighting. Kpler's preliminary ship-tracking puts crude moving through Hormuz at 33.7m barrels in the week of 20 Sep.
PARA 23
The wider energy marketalso remains exposed tofurther disruptions.
更广泛的能源市场也依然面临进一步中断的风险。
PARA 24
The conflicthas reducedcrude-oil supplies by an estimated 27%, refined-product supplies by 21% and liquefied natural-gas supplies by 16%,according to S&P Global Energy CERA.
Diesel moves freight. With the conflict estimated to have cut refined-product supplies by 21%, road haulage is where the squeeze becomes visible.柴油驱动货运。冲突估计已使成品油供应减少 21%，公路运输是最先感受到紧张的地方。Unsplash 无版权图库素材（公路货运示意，非新闻原图）。
PARA 25
War-risk premiums9have not disappearedsimply on announcements of potential progress,it said in analysis published Thursday.
A benchmark is the reference price the market agrees to trade a commodity by. Brent (North Sea oil) is the benchmark for most of the world's crude; WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is the benchmark for U.S. crude.
Why it matters here ▸ This whole story is two benchmarks drifting apart: Brent settled at $104.32, WTI at $92.41 — a $12.68 gap.
Extended note: Always ask which benchmark, where it is delivered, and whether you are reading a price or a spread. Brent and WTI normally differ by a few dollars; in April 2020 WTI briefly went negative while Brent stayed above $20.
2front-month/frʌnt mʌnθ/点击看中文解释 ↓
The front-month contract is the futures contract closest to expiry — the one the market quotes as today's price. "Front-month Brent" means the nearest-dated Brent future.
Why it matters here ▸ The report quotes front-month November Brent and November WTI, so both numbers refer to the same delivery month — a like-for-like comparison.
Extended note: The front-month spread — nearby versus next month — is a tightness gauge. It went from under $1 in February to $4–$5 today.
3blockade/blɑˈkeɪd/点击看中文解释 ↓
A blockade is when a country uses its navy to stop ships from entering or leaving another country's ports. Iranian oil cannot be exported while the U.S. Navy blockade is in place.
Why it matters here ▸ Iran says it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz only if the U.S. lifts the naval blockade that has "kept Iranian oil shut in".
Extended note: Sanctions bite through banks; a blockade bites through warships. Lifting a blockade is a far bigger concession than easing sanctions, which is why the talks keep stalling.
4sanctions/ˈsæŋkʃənz/点击看中文解释 ↓
Sanctions are penalties — freezing assets, cutting off finance, barring trade — that one country imposes on another to change its behaviour.
Why it matters here ▸ Saudi Arabia and the UAE are urging Washington to keep the pressure on and "avoid concessions that would ease sanctions".
Extended note: Watch two dials: scope and enforcement. A common oil variant is a price cap — you may sell, but only below a set price.
5fundamentals/ˌfʌndəˈmɛntəlz/点击看中文解释 ↓
Fundamentals are the real-world facts behind a price: how much oil is produced, how much is consumed, and how much sits in storage. News moves prices day to day; fundamentals decide whether a move lasts.
Why it matters here ▸ "Near-term oil-market fundamentals remain tight" — the bank's point is that diplomacy headlines do not add a single barrel of supply.
Extended note: Separate headlines from fundamentals. Here the news was bearish while the physical market stayed tight — which is why Friday's selloff was only 2%.
6prompt supplies/prɑmpt/点击看中文解释 ↓
In commodity markets prompt means "deliverable right now". Prompt supplies are the barrels available today, not next year. When prompt supply is tight, near-dated prices jump.
Why it matters here ▸ The bank notes Brent's front-month spread — a prompt-tightness measure — is $4–$5 versus under $1 in February.
Extended note: Nearby months above later months is backwardation — scarcity now. Later months above nearby (contango) means the market is comfortable today.
7inventories/ˈɪnvəntɔriz/点击看中文解释 ↓
Inventories (also called stocks) are the barrels of oil sitting in tanks and on ships. Rising inventories mean supply is outrunning demand; falling inventories mean the opposite.
Why it matters here ▸ The IEA says observed global inventories have dropped 507 million barrels since the war began — an average draw of 2.8 million barrels a day.
Extended note: Ask who counts and what they miss. Global observed stocks fell, yet U.S. commercial crude rose by nearly 3 million barrels — different scopes, different signals.
The refinery utilization rate is the share of a refinery's capacity that is actually running. Refineries regularly shut units for maintenance, which lowers the rate and pushes crude into storage instead of into fuel.
Why it matters here ▸ "If you take a good million barrels off the refinery utilization rate, those million barrels a day are going to get stuffed into storage."
Extended note: Crude is not a finished product. Rising crude stocks with falling product stocks is the classic maintenance-season pattern — the bottleneck is refining, not drilling.
9war-risk premium/wɔr rɪsk ˈprimiəm/点击看中文解释 ↓
A war-risk premium is the extra money buyers pay — and insurers charge — because a barrel has to travel through a dangerous area. It is the part of the price that exists only because of the threat of conflict.
Why it matters here ▸ S&P Global Energy CERA warns these premiums "have not disappeared simply on announcements of potential progress".
Extended note: Split a price into fundamentals plus risk premium. The premium is reversible on headlines — and it snaps back the moment attacks resume.
读后测验 · Check Your Understanding
3 道题。点选项立即判分；解析需要单独点开。
Q1How did the two crude benchmarks finish the week, according to the article?
正确答案：C
原文把两组周度涨跌写得清清楚楚：布伦特「ended the week up 0.4%」，WTI「for a 3.8% weekly loss」。两者周五都在跌，但整周方向相反。A、B、D 都把周五的单日下跌当成了整周表现，或者把两个基准混为一谈——原文是两句独立的数据，不能合并也不能对调。 Front-month Brent crude for November delivery fell 2.1% to $104.32 a barrel, and ended the week up 0.4%. West Texas Intermediate crude for November settled down 2.3% at $92.41 a barrel for a 3.8% weekly loss.The trap is Friday's move versus the week's move: both fell on Friday, yet only WTI lost ground over the full week.
Q2Why did Iran's offer fail to push prices sharply lower?
正确答案：B
原文用两处判断解释了「为什么不跌」：交易员认为协议「slim to none（基本没戏）」，且基本面「remain tight」。C 在原文里完全没有依据；A 是凭空添加的情节；D 与「has kept Iranian oil shut in」正好相反。 “What are the chances of that? Slim to none basically,” said Robert Yawger, commodity specialist at Mizuho Securities USA. “We’ve heard this story at least four times before, it never panned out.”C invents a fact that never appears in the wire copy; A adds a motive the text never gives; D directly contradicts the sentence about the blockade keeping Iranian oil shut in.
Q3Which statement best captures the article's overall message?
正确答案：B
收尾这句就是全文态度：仅凭「可能取得进展」的公告，战争风险溢价不会消失。A 与「Slim to none」「fundamentals remain tight」相矛盾；C 与全文通篇在讲风险相矛盾；D 把机制说反了——出口禁令是把柴油留在美国国内、迫使炼厂少加工原油，并不是增加全球供给。 War-risk premiums have not disappeared simply on announcements of potential progress, it said in analysis published Thursday.The closing line is the thesis. A contradicts the market's own scepticism, C contradicts a whole article about risk, and D reverses how an export ban actually works.
